Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.25 Ascot : Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Held up in mid-division, pushed along chasing leaders and switched left over 3f out, ridden and hung right 2f out, stayed on in 3rd towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 5, 3yo+ novices handicap hurdle contest over 2m on good to soft ground...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 4.5 lengths when last seen 29 days ago.

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His trainer Chris Gordon's record here at Plumpton since the start of 2013 stands at 25/149 (16.8% SR) for 99.6pts (+66.8% ROI) and those 149 runners include...

  • at Class 4/5 : 23/127 (18.1%) for 91.2pts (+71.8%)
  • males are 22/123 (17.9%) for 114.3pts (+92.9%)
  • handicappers are 22/114 (19.3%) for 87.3pts (+76.5%)
  • hurdlers are 15/107 (14%) for 63.5pts (+59.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds are 18/99 (18.2%) for 115.7pts (+116.9%)
  • those ridden by Tom Cannon : 18/95 (19%) for 98.2pts (+103.4%)
  • at 2m4f and shorter : 19/82 (23.2%) for 133.4pts (+162.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 12/80 (15%) for 43.2pts (+54%)
  • novices are 8/33 (24.2%) for 75.4pts (+228.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/15 940%) for 4pts (+26.5%)

PLUS...Chris Gordon + handicap hurdles + LTO winners 1-30 days ago + 2009-17 = 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 16.8pts (+30.5% ROI), including...

  • 6 to 30 days since last run : 13/52 (25%) for 19.8pts (+38.1%)
  • males are 12/46 (26.1%) for 23.1pts (+50.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 13/41 (31.7%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 6/31 (19.4%) for 1.5pts (+4.8%)
  • 7 to 9 yr olds are 9/24 (37.5%) for 29.3pts (+122%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%)
  • on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 13.81pts (+138.1%)
  • here at Plumpton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.2pts (+88.2%)
  • and running at the same C&D as LTO : 3/6 (50%)

AND...more generally : 2012-17 / hcp hurdles / males who won LTO by 4 lengths or more 1-45 days earlier = 391/1479 (26.4% SR) for 259.5pts (+17.6% ROI) from which those running over the same C&D as that LTO win are 47/145 (32.4%) for 74.4pts (+51.3%).

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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