Stat of the Day, 24th August 2015
Amazing Charm wasn't exactly amazing at Chelmsford on Saturday evening, but she wasn't entirely dreadful either.
She was eventually fourth home of five runners at 11.4/ slightly shorter than our advised 3/1. She had led with a furlong of the nine left to run, but was swamped and outpaced on the run to the line, finally beaten by 5.5 lengths.
It wasn't that bad an effort for a first run on the A/W, but a losing one for us nevertheless and a disappointing end to another profitable (+3.5pts) week for SotD.
I seem to have been in great form on Mondays of late, despite it being my least favourite day for racing and I hope to continue the trend with the winner of the...
With a bet at 100/30 BOG on Charlie Fellowes' 3yr old filly Classical Rose.
Charlie Fellowes doesn't have the highest profile amongst trainers and he doesn't have a large amount of runners and nor is he profitable to back blindly.
In fact backing all his runners since his first representative in mid-February 2014 gives you just 18 winners from 162 (11.1% SR) and an overall loss of 2.1pts (-1.3% ROI), which might make him a strange choice for SotD, but...
...this race is a 7f A/W handicap, where he runs a 3yo filly and from his 162 runners (above) to date, he is 15/103 (14.6% SR) for 32.1pts (+31.2% ROI) profit, which applied to today's race conditions looks like :
- 8/45 (17.8% SR) for 30.7pts (+68.2% ROI) on the A/W
- 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 19.7pts (+47% ROI) with 3 yr olds
- 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 55.1pts (+211.8% ROI) over 7 furlongs
- 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 33.5pts (+139.7% ROI) here at Kempton
- 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 14pts |(+126.9% ROI) with fillies.
His 3yr olds in 7f A/W handicaps are 3/6 (50% SR) for 24pts profit with a 2 from 2 record here at Kempton yielding 18.7pts.
Freddie Tylicki takes the ride today and he's in good form of late, winning 5 of 20 rides (25% SR) in the last 10 days with all 5 winners coming from the 11 runners (45.5% SR) sent off at 11/2 or shorting, generating 8.2pts (+74.7% ROI) profit.
Freddie also has a record of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) for 19pts (+86.2% ROI) when riding in handicaps for Charlie Fellowes, of which he's 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 20.8pts (+173% ROI) on the A/ and 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for 14.7pts (+245.6% ROI) here at Kempton.
I've taken my 100/30 BOG from Hills this morning, but for a full overview of the market...
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