Saturday's pick was...
6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Reeves @ 9/2 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...
Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.
He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...
- 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
- 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
- 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
- 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
- 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
- 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
- 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
- 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
- 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance
...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...
- 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
- 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
- 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
- 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
- and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...
...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...
...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!