Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2014

The ground was deemed too soft after overnight rain at Haydock, so Lightening Rod was withdrawn from his Saturday engagement, leaving us with no bet and nothing to report on.

So, with a clean slate for a new week, we kick things off in the...

5.05 Wolverhampton:

Where the talented Ali Rawlinson will hope to make good use of his 5lb claim aboard Mick Appleby's 4yr old filly, Be Royale, who can currently be backed at 6/1 BOG in several places.

Firstly, let's consider the trainer's record here at Dunstall Park...

Since the start of 2012, Mick Appleby's handicappers are 20/93 (21.5% SR) for 42.7pts (+45.9% ROI) profit, when sent off in the 7/2 to 8/1 price banding, where we'll probably be playing today. Ali Rawlinson, meanwhile is 3/6 (50% SR) for 12.9pts (+214.3% ROI) on those horses, which comes as no surprise, because...

...Ali has a good overall record on the Appleby string...

...winning 21 of 111 races (18.9% SR) generating level stakes profits of 19.5pts (+17.6% ROI) in the process. We can break the 111 runners down further as follows:

A/W races : 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 27.6pts (+46.7% ROI)
Handicap races : 21/98 (21.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+33.2% ROI)
A/W handicaps : 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 37.6pts (+76.6% ROI)

Today's contest is an open age (3yo+) handicap race...

And since the start of 2011, Mick Appleby's runners in these races who were aged 3 to 5 and running at the same class as their last run and running at a trip no more than 2 furlongs difference (above or below!) have won 26 of 108 (24.1% SR) efforts, producing level stakes profits of 91.7pts at an ROI of 84.9% with those sent off at 8/1 or shorter winning 21 of 69 (30.4% SR) for 38.3pts (55.6% ROI).

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This is Be Royale's second run inside a week....

...after least being seen at Southwell last Tuesday, but there's no issue with that as Mr Appleby has success with his handicapper running within 7 days of their last outing. 26 of 154 (16.9% SR) such runners have been winners with the 21.9pts profits equating to just shy of 15p in the pound on every bet. These figures are dramatically improved, however, by focusing on those priced between 3/1 and 7/1, where the 13/43 (30.2% SR) record has yielded 31.4pts (+73% ROI) to date.

She was a winner last week after form reading 156450...

...which makes her one of my "back to form" micro system qualifiers. Here I look for horses who have recently won after a string (at least three!) of unplaced efforts and are turned out again fairly quickly in attempt to catch the horse in form. The basic parameters for my A/W handicappers are that they must have won LTO inside the last 25 days and run in the 5/2 to 7/1 price range. This might sound like a fairly niche angle, but since 2008, there has actually been 952 qualifiers!

189 of those 952 (19.9% SR) horses have been winners and if you'd had a£10 bet on each of them, you'd now be some £1782 better off, profits equivalent to 18.7% of your stakes. Here at Wolverhampton, the record reads 69/321 (21.5% ROI) for 79.7pts (+24.8% ROI), which is better than the A/W average and this is partly due to this angle being really successful in the last couple of years here at this track with 22 winners from 71 (31% SR) producing 54.4pts profit at an ROI of 76.6%.

As I said, earlier, our jockey has a 5lb claim to use today...

...and Mick Appleby is very adept at using his claimer jockeys to good effect. In the last foru years, he has used a 5lb claiming jockey on 21 horses sent off in the 5/2 to 9/1 price range, producing 7 winners (33.33% SR) and 24pts (114.4% ROI) profits with Ali Rawlinson's contribution being 3/10 for 4.6pts.

Be Royale has won two and placed twice in six runs here at Wolverhampton and she's 1 from 2 over course and distance. She's up 6lbs for her win last week, but does have a tendency to win races in clusters. She's much more at home on the A/W than on the turf and she has a record of three wins and two places from just eight A/W outings and we can expect another bold bid as she aims to improve on her trainer's excellent recent form, which has seen the yard saddle up 6 winners from 25 in the last fortnight, with a 5/20 record on the A/W in the same period of which Ali rawlison has four wins from nine!

A quick look at the market suggests there's just enough juice in the available price for an E/W bet, but fortune favours the brave and for me, it's a 1pt win bet on Be Royale at 6/1 BOG. Feel free to go E/W if you like, of course, but I've taken the win option with HIlls and the price is also on offer in at least two other places, as can be seen when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.05 Wolverhampton 

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2 replies
  1. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris….

    Watched the race and maybe with a slightly better draw would have come out on top. Was interesting what they ATR were saying about the possibility of a draw bias at Wolves now beginning to favour the lower drawn horses especially over the 7f trip?

    Best

    Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      There’s always been a draw advantage for middle to low. The main reason is that the 7f start is on a chute about 30 yards from a bend, so wide drawn horses have a very tough time getting a position, especially if they need to be close to the pace.

      Matt

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