Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Florencio @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (In touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Soft ground, worth £5434 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

A 3yr old gelding dropping in class, returning to a track he has run well on previously, Conditions shouldn't trouble him and he gets on well with his jockey.

Numerically this translates as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two previous outings here at Hamilton and he was a runner-up (beaten by just a short head) on his only prior run on soft ground. He has two wins and a place from four efforts with Nathan Evans in the saddle and his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 handicap runs includes a 1 from 1 at this course and distance.

If that's not enough to convince you, then his stablemates also go well at this venue, with Mick Easterby saddling up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for 11.4pts (+45.6% ROI) here over the last four years, including...

  • males at 6 from 20 (30%) for 11.9pts (+59.5%)
  • Nathan Evans is 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 5.22pts (+34.8%)
  • over this 8.5f course and distance : 4/7 (57.1%) for 12pts (+171.7%)
  • and after a break of 1 to 2 months : 3/4 (75%) for 15.16pts (+379%)

Nathan Evans + males over 8.5/9 furlongs = 3 from 5 960%) for 6.18pts (+123.6% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record producing 4.66pts from the one that ran after a break of 45-60 days.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
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