Thursday's Result :
1.20 Chelmsford : Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG 7th at 6/4 - Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong
Boxing Day's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG
This 8 yr old won his last effort over hurdles in a similar (C5, 2m) contest at Uttoxeter 12 weeks ago when ridden by today's jockey Alan Johns for the first time. He has run creditably in two chases since then and Mr Johns now jumps back in the saddle for a second time, as the horse reverts back to hurdling.
He acts well enough on soft ground and is still favourably treated based on his previous Irish form and seems overpriced at 7/1 to me today.
His trainer, Tim Vaughan, is 17 from 80 (21.25% SR) for 67.2pts (+84% RO) here at Wincanton since 2009, and with today's contest in mind, those 80 runners are...
- 16/71 (22.5%) for 57.5pts (+81%) as males
- 16/69 (23.2%) for 73.1pts (+106%) aged 4 to 8 yrs old
- 15/66 (22.7%) for 71.3pts (+108%) at Classes 4 to 6
- 13/59 (22%) for 71.8pts (+121.7%) over hurdles
- 10/57 (17.5%) for 71.2pts (+125%) in handicaps
- 7/33 (21.2%) for 15.6pts (+47.3%) over 1m7.5f / 2m
In addition to the above, Alan Johns has 21 wins from 164 (12.8% SR) rides on Tim Vaughan's handicap hurdlers since the start of 2015, netting 30.9pts profit at an ROI of 18.8% with those racing over 1m7.5f/2m winning 6 of 35 (17.1%) for 35.6pts (+101.7%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chakisto at 7/1 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 6 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 9.45pm on Christmas Day (yes, we work Christmas Day for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 7/1 BOG, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS