Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.40 Chester : Miracle of Medinah @ 9/2 BOG 8th at 9/4 (Mid-division, under pressure over 3f out, no impression)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Polo The Mumm at 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is positively thriving since a switch to Jackie du Plessis' yard, winning two of three starts since the move and he comes here seeking a hat-trick after a 2 length win at Worcester over 2m4f, before a very comfortable 14 lengths romp here over this course and distance 37 days ago.

He's been thumped with a massive 12lb rise in weight for that win, but the truth is that he could have won by a country mile LTO had that been required, so 12lbs isn't insurmountable. He's got his regular rider on board today and they'll be looking to improve the record of Jackie du Plessis' handicap hurdlers, who are 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 40.5pts (+103.9% ROI) profit since the start of 2014.

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And as a course and distance winner last time out, he now becomes of further interest to me, as since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers with the CD logo on the railcard and who were winners (anywhere, any trip) LTO are 210/970 (21.7% SR) for 180.1pts (+18.6% ROI), of which those who actually won over course and distance last time out went on to "double up" on 154 of 677 (22.8% SR) occasions for profits of 140.9pts at an ROI of 20.8%

Plus, in that same 2012-16 timeframe, male handicap hurdlers who won by 4 lengths or more last time out, 3 to 60 days ago, are 316/1237 (25.6% SR) for 209.6pts (+16.9% ROI), from which...

  • those who won by 4-15 lengths are 286/1104 (25.9%) for 214.8pts (+19.5%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 2m7.5f : 191/658 (29%) for 229.5pts (+34.9%)
  • 21-45 days since they last ran : 94/449 (20.9%) for 128.1pts (+28.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 122/396 (30.8%) for 80.2pts (+20.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/335 (24.2%) for 68.8pts (+20.5%)

AND...6-8 yr olds / Class 4 / 2m1f-2m7.5f / 21-45 dslr / won by 4-15 L LTO = 18/39 (46.2% SR) for 63.9pts (+163.9% ROI)

...leading to

...a 1pt win bet on Polo The Mumm at 9/2 BOG, which was available in 8 or 9 places at 9.30pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newton Abbot.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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