Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Kempton : Sir Note @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/1 Led but pressed by rival and clear of rest, narrowly headed appoaching 10th, in front again next, joined when blundered 3 out, ridden and pressed when left clear last

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.45 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shades of Midnight 3/1 BOG

Why?

A seven year old gelding, trained by Donald Whillans, whose runners priced at 10/1 and shorter on heavy ground are 8/25 (32% SR) for 37.4pts (+149.6% ROI) since 2013, including of relevance today...

Your first 30 days for just £1
  • in handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.9pts (+137.3%)
  • ridden by Callum Whillans : 8/23 (34.8%) for 39.4pts (+171.3%)
  • over hurdles : 7/19 (36.8%) for 39pts (+205.4%)
  • males : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32.2pts (+169.7%)
  • those last seen 21 to 6o days ago : 8/18 (44.4%) for 44.4pts (+246.7%)
  • 5 to 8 yr olds : 7/15 (46.7%) 36.25pts (+241.7%)
  • here at Ayr : 4/7 (57.1%) for 22.3pts (+317.9%)
  • and at Class 3  : 3/5 (60%) for 14.4pts (+288%

AND...from the above, 6-8 yr old male handicap hurdlers ridden by Callum Whillans, 21-60 dslr = 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 35.4pts at an ROI of 590.7%, of which...

  • runners at Ayr = 3/3 for 21.9pts
  • Class 3 runners are 3/3 for 16.4pts

with Class 3 runners here at Ayr standing at 1/1, after today's pick, Shades of Midnight, won here on his last visit back in March 2016.

This horse comes with a set of stats behind to suggest this race is pretty close to the ideal one for him, for as to date, he is...

  • 4/16 under Callum Whillans, 4/14 in a tongue tie, 4/13 going left handed,
  • 5/12 @ 16-60 dslr, 5/10 during Jan-April, 3/8 @ 16-30 dslr, 2/4 at Class 3 (with both losers making the frame)
  • 2/3 carrying 11st 9lbs, 2/2 at 2m4.5f to 2m6.5f and 1 from 1 here at Ayr.

He's also by Midnight Legend, but don't worry, I'm not going to bang on about this sire for ages, giving you dozens of stats, other than to remind you that his Class 3/4 heavy ground handicap hurdlers priced at 6/1 and shorter since the start of 2015 are 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 13.6pts (+56.6% ROI), of which those racing over 2m4.5f to 2m6.5f are 4/8 (50%) for 5.67pts (+70.9%), whilst runners at Ayr are 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.5pts (+150%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shades of Midnight @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.15pm on Sunday, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Your first 30 days for just £1