Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2015

Saturday's selection Camanche Grey was advised to you at 11/2 BOG and was heavily backed down towards 3/1 before being withdrawn due to the ground condition.

That was our second non-runner of the week, but with the other four runners finishing 3111 for over 10pts profit on the week, it was a very good week indeed and with profits of over 18.2pts for the month so far with only five betting days to go, we're assured a decent return no matter what this week brings!

That said, I completed a hat-trick on Friday and I'd love to hit a 4-timer for you via Monday's...

3.30 Ayr :

A Class 4, 1m5f handicap for nine 3yo+ handicappers on Good ground, where I've just placed a bet on the Joe Fanning-ridden and Mark Johnston-trained 3 yr old gelding, Chadic, who is currently (9.30pm, Sunday) priced at 11/4 BOG with both Coral & Hills, whilst Ladbrokes are offering the same price, but won't go BOG until 9.00am on Monday.

Firstly, we should remind ourselves of the red-hot form of both jockey and trainer. Mark Johnston's horses have won 16 of their 43 (37.2% SR) races in the last 7 days and a £10 bet on each of them would have netted you a cool £296 at an ROI of 68.8%. In the same time, his handicappers are 10/25 (40% SR) for 14.8pts (+59.2% ROI) profit.

And to Joe Fanning, who is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 6.2pts (+25.8% ROI) in all races and 4/16 (25% SR) for 8.64pts (+54% ROI) in handicap contests, largely thanks to partnering the Johnston runners to 4 wins from 15 (26.7% SR) for 9.64pts (+64.3% ROI) in all races and they are 4/10 (40% SR) together in handicaps, producing 14.64pts at an ROI of 146.4%.

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Mark only has one runner anywhere today, so Chadic is his only chance of success and looks to have been well placed as a 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap, as these younger 'cappers get a weight for age allowance in open age handicaps and the longer the trip, the higher the allowance and at today's 1m5f, Chadic gets a whopping 13lbs, effectively reducing his mark to a very winnable 72.

Not only does Chadic get this allowance, his trainer Mark Johnston is the absolute master at exploiting this rule to the maximum potential, especially over the longer trips.

Since 2008, the Johnston 3 yr olds in open age handicaps on the Flat at trips of 1m4f to 2m are 76/322 (23.6% SR) for 83.3pts (+25.9% ROI) profit (2/8 here at Ayr), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 49 of 205 (23.9% SR) for 62.2pts (+30.4% ROI).

Joe Fanning has ridden 99 of those 322 runners and his 25 winners represents a very healthy 25.3% strike rate that has produced 24.3pts (+24.5% ROI), whilst his rides on horses priced at 2/1 to 8/1 has resulted in 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) and 32.9pts profit at an ROI of 51.5%.

This time last year, Chadic was running in Group races off a mark of 100! He lost his way somewhat in the second half of last season, but a dropping handicap mark and a couple of steps up in trip seems to have rejuvenated him of late.

Since moving up from his usual 7f/1m he has finished 2131, the latest effort being a 3.25 length success over 1m5.5f at Chester nine days ago, where he easily accounted for the well-fancied Cecil filly Distain. He's never raced at this 1m5f trip before, but is 2 from 2 at 1m4.5f to 1m5.5f, so it's fairly safe to assume that the trip won't be an issue.

Then again, there aren't many reasons why Chadic shouldn't find the conditons untolerable at all here today. He's 1 from 2 here at Ayr and 3 from 5 (14211) on good ground. He has already tasted success under Joe Fanning and has finished 12131 when priced below 4/1, so the market tends to be a good indicator of his chances.

He's also 2 from 5 in the month of July, 3 from 9 in fields of less than 10 runners and 3 from 4 when racing with less than a fortnight's rest since his previous outing. All three career wins have come on left handed tracks, he's 2 from 4 at this Class 4 grade and has won twice from six efforts in blinkers.

The stats suggest he'll go well, trainer and/or jockey form also point to a good run, whilst he seems to have conditions set to suit him, all of which point to Chadic going off somewhat shorter than my advised 11/4 BOG that I took from Coral, but time will tell!

To see the very latest odds for Chadic... here for the betting on the 3.30 Ayr

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Here is today's racecard.

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8 replies
  1. jethro says:

    Many thanks for the early advice before you wrote your full write up Chris – I was very pleased to get on at 11/4 BOG before it quickly disappeared!
    Hope the weather at Ayr isn’t as bad as forecast tomorrow – the track could easily be on the soft side come 3.30pm if the heavy rain arrives as predicted. Otherwise, the chances of him goings two places better for us then when he was SotD just over two weeks ago look mighty fine indeed… Cheers

  2. maverick99 says:

    I now see that today’s selection is best priced 2/1 from PP. As SOTD is all about value the question is should Chadic actually be backed at 2/1 if the suggested 11/4 price hasn’t been obtained? I believe that the criteria for any chosen selection is generally a 9/4 minimum price. I also note that according to oddschecker 9/4 was seemingly the best price available from any firm this morning so as SOTD becomes more popular and followed no doubt by the bookmakers could it be argued that posting the bet the night before actually gives the bookmakers more time to react and shorten the price before the morning and many SOTD/Gold users will not have had the opportunity on a Sunday night to place a bet? So on a quiet Sunday night the few people backing Chadic would raise alarm bells and the subsequent price shortening, whereas any activity on Monday morning wouldn’t have been so noticeable. This is not a criticism in any way, as I believe that SOTD is brilliant, but just a casual, albeit important observation that may deserve some debate.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      My final words/thoughts on the whole issue of odds & timings of postings re: SotD are as follows…
      No matter which we do it, not everyone will be suited by it.

      Whether you think a horse is value at odds of below 9/4 is one of personal opinion, though.
      I’ve backed plenty below that price in the past and been very happy to do so.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi maverick99,

      I backed Chadic this morning at 5/2, which was available with five different bookies at the time (08:11).

      Naturally, any successful value service will attract the attention of bookmakers. Hugh Taylor’s ATR selections’ prices are gone in, literally, 60 seconds normally.

      But with regards to getting on, etc., that is your (i.e. each individual’s) responsibility. I saw the tweet last night, because I follow @geegeez_uk on twitter. But I didn’t back the horse until this morning, when I saw it feature on my own list of possibles (I don’t back SotD, because I don’t back other people’s tips, not because it isn’t excellent!!)

      So, and I hope you understand where I’m coming from with this, if you want to use SotD optimally, you need to be ready /able to do that. If you’re not, no problem at all; but we can’t do anything differently to correct that.

      As to the point of value prices around Chadic, I personally wouldn’t have been interested at south of 2/1. But, as Chris says, that depends on what your perception of the value cap is. It’s Chris’s job to identify horses which he considers value at the prices available at that time.

      Appreciate this is a bit of a ‘slippery’ answer, but it inevitably cannot be anything else on such a matter.


      • Chris Worrall says:

        I should also add that 3 value-seeking commercial tipster, whose judgments I respect, have also come out and selected the same horse at 15/8 and 2/1.
        I want to beat these guys to the punch to maximise the potential rewards for our subscribers.

        Let those paying £30+ per month just for tips pick up our scraps, whilst £24/month Gold members get the picks at the best price and a whole host of other stuff too!

  3. FGR says:

    Chadic was on my own shortlist too. The softening ground is a concern and had he not been put up by Chris (when the ground was still good) I’d be letting him run – so let’s hope I’m wrong on that one!
    As for what and what isn’t a value price – that’s entirely up to the individual.
    Finally, with regards to the ongoing odds debate, there’s no excuse for not being on at the recommended odds as far as I’m concerned.
    Just divvy up a 50 pt bank, open up multiple accounts, and get yourself organised. It’s not rocket science!

  4. maverick99 says:

    Thanks for the replies Chris & Matt and I apologise if I’ve stirred up a hornets nest. That wasn’t my intention – far from it – and I totally understand that it’s an impossible balancing act. As for whether 2/1 is value,sure it’s all relative, however from a very simple mathematical perspective in relation to all SOTD selections and not just one single selection they generate a ROI at suggested prices of 25%. With 6 races a week we’re talking about 1.5 points profit per week at suggested prices. Subsequently if any backer of SOTD selections on average fails to meet the recommended prices by an average of 0.25/1 over time/selections he/she will simply fail to make any profits. Many people fail to understand that the price obtained for the selection is the most crucial element in SOTD’s profitability figures. Perhaps I shouldn’t have posted this, but hats off to Chris & the SOTD it’s a truly great service/feature, but the price anyone backs them at is crucial.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      No hornet’s nest at all.

      But to say all selections below 9/4 offer no value is quite wrong.
      I advise two winners from seven on average and if half of them are 2/1 and half of them are 4/1, then there’s still profit.

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