Stat of the Day, 27th October 2014
A storm and a late night power cut mean we're running late today, but here goes...
Tokyo Javilex was pulled up on Saturday, having been sent off at 6/1, half a point longer than what I'd actually thought was a good price to take at 11/2.
All of which pretty much summed up a desperate week for SotD, with Tuesday's 9/1 runner-up the sole highlight of the week and even that horse managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. As October comes towards a close, normal service will hopefully be resumed today in the...
Where Ed Dunlop gives a handicap debut to Machiavellian Storm...
Ed doesn't seem to send too many runners here to Leicester for some reason, but I'm sure it's not because his horses don't run well here.
Over the last four seasons, his handicappers have won 6 of 16 races (37.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.6pts (+141.3% ROI) with those running in the 3/1 to 9/1 bracket winning 5 of 9 (55.6% SR) for 26.8pts (+298.1% ROI) profit.
He now switches Machiavellian Storm back to the turf after acquiring an opening mark of 60 from three unplaced efforts in maidens (debut at Yarmouth and two runs at Kempton). She showed signs of promise last time out at Kempton, catching the eye with a good second half to her 7f race 12 days ago after being outpaced early on.
It is expected that the softer ground will help her here today, as she's by Dark Angel, whose 2 yr old offspring have a decent record on soft (or worse!) ground, winning 16 of 108 (13%) for 16.6pts profit (+15.4% ROI) and a record of 11/71 (15.5% SR) for 27pts (+38% ROI) running at Class 4 or lower.
As I mentioned at the top of the piece, today is Machiavellian Storm's handicap debut and in the last three seasons, 13 of Ed Dunlop's 57 handicap debutants have been winners. This 22.8% strike rate has generated 51pts profit (+89.5% ROI) to level stakes, with those running at Class 4 or lower winning 12 of 42 (28.6% SR) for 55.1pts at an ROI of 131.1%)
Ed's handicap debutants running over a trip of a mile and shorter are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 48pts (+160% ROI) profit and if you wanted a little micros-system to take away from this today, you could do worse than to note that...
Ed Dunlop's handicap debutants running over 6 to 12 furlongs at Class 4 or lower are 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 35.7pts (+188% ROI) when sent off below 10/1.
She did show signs that there'll be more to come in handicap company and I think she'll handle the softer ground better than some of her rivals and in a race that seems to lack quality, she could be the answer at a reasonable price.
Today's advice is a 1pt win bet on Machiavellian Storm at 9/2 BOG. This price is very widely available, so for your preferred bookie...
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