Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2015

Saturday's Result :

3.00 Sedgefield : Gunner Lindley @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, driven after 3 out, one pace next, ridden and kept on flat, not reach leaders)

Monday's runner goes in the...

3.40 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Prairie Town @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

Tony Carroll's horses seem to be coming back into some kind of form and the yard had a couple of winners last week to back up that thought, whilst here at Leicester over the last 4 yrs, the yard's runners priced at 12/1 and shorter are 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 23.4pts (+49.8% ROI) with male runners winning 8 of 45 (17.8% SR) for 25.4pts (+56.4% ROI)

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Lee Edwards has ridden 7 winners from 32 (21.9% SR) of the original 47 for profits of 29pts (+90.7% ROI), whilst at Classes 3 & 4, these horses are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 32.7pts (+116.6% ROI).

Carroll / Edwards / Leicester / Males / Class 3&4 at 9/2 to 12/1 = 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 34.3pts (+201.6% ROI)

Tony's NH runners also go well on heavy ground and at those 9/2 to 12/1 odds mentioned above, they are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 44.2pts (+119.4% ROI) profit, broken down as follows...

  • handicaps : 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 43.1pts (+134.7% ROI)
  • hurdles : 5/26 (19.2% SR) for 24.6pts (+94.8% ROI)
  • ran on soft/heavy LTO : 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 26.1pts (+144.9% ROI)
  • ridden by Lee Edwards : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 30.8pts (+220.2% ROI)
  • at the 2m trip : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 27.5pts (+196.2% ROI)
  • Class 3 : 3/10 (30% SR) for 17.53pts (+175.3% ROI)

And Prairie Town has one win and a runner-up finish (beaten by a neck a week ago) from 2 starts on heavy ground, so conditions should be ideal for a horse that has also won at this Class 3 level (has also ran at C2 and Gr1!), has won on soft ground and is 2 from 5 over two miles. He's also one from two going right handed and a 12-runner field shouldn't pose a problem, as he's won a 14-runner contest in the past.

 And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 9.25pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Prairie Town and that's at 7/1 BOG with with either BetVictor or Paddy Power, whilst Betway will go BOG in the morning so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Leicester

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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