Saturday's Result :
3.25 Kempton: Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In touch, effort over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong)
Easter Monday's runner goes in the...
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Blue Rambler @ 4/1 BOG
Ground speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue here with a horse that was 4 from 4 on the Flat in France and eemed good enough to run in Listed Class in his second/last UK Flat outing (1m6f).
He has finished 322 in three efforts over hurdles, with the middle run being his best to date. That run was over a considerably longer trip (2m3.5f) than the other two which were inadequately short, so I'm expecting this distance to suit him. That middle run was at Musselburgh in early February, when he was only beaten by half a length behind the 135-rated Jetstream Jack, suggesting that an opening handciap mark of 124 could well be on the lenient side today.
His trainer, John Ferguson has a record of 17 wins from 57 runners (29.8% SR) for profits of 10.44pts (+18.3% ROI) here at Market Rasen and those runners can be further scrutinised as follows...
- those running on good/good to soft ground are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 15.3pts (+33.3% ROI)
- hurdlers are 15/43 (34.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% SR)
- those racing over 17 to 20.5 furlongs are 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
- 5/6 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+73.4% ROI)
- those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
- those last seen 26 to 60 days ago are 10/20 (50% SR) for 19.7pts (+98.5% ROI)
- those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 3.74pts (+20.8% ROI)
- those who were 2nd LTO are 7/14 (50% SR) for 19.5pts (+139.5% ROI)
In addition to the above, John has sent Blue Rambler to the track as his only runner of the meeting, but it's a tactic that has been fruitful in the past, with his single entrants winning 112 of 393 (28.5% SR) for 38.2ptys (+9.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2011, and these runners are...
- 90/307 (29.3% SR) for 25.8pts (+8.4% ROI) over hurdles
- 52/157 (33.1% SR) for 45pts (+28.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 and 6
- 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 17pts (+17.5% ROI) on good to soft ground.
And not only is Blue Rambler John's only runner here at Market Rasen today, this 6yr old gelding is the yard's only runner anywhere on Easter Monday. And since the start of 2013, these solo runners have paid their way by winning 70 of 207 races (33.8% SR) producing level stakes profits of 45.5pts at an ROI of 22%, broken down as follows...
- hurdlers are 57/161 (35.4% SR) for 41pts (+25.5%ROI)
- those priced at 15/8 to 10/1 (we should be fine here!) are 34/118 (+28.8% SR) for 51.7pts (+43.8% ROI)
- on good to soft ground : 20/54 (37% SR) for 30.5pts (+56.5% ROI)
- handicappers are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+38.8% ROI)
- 6 yr olds are 17/41 (41.5% SR) for 31.8pts (+77.6% ROI)
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Blue Rambler at 4/1 BOG with any one of the six firms currently (10.00pm Sunday) quoting that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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