Saturday's Result :
3.55 Lingfield : Si Senor @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (In touch, headway over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, soon ridden, kept on and held close home and beaten by a head)
Monday's runner goes in the...
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Takingrisks @ 11/4 BOG
I actually put this one up almost a fortnight ago, when he was due to run at Ayr, but was eventually declared a non-runner, so some (but not all!) of last time's stats are still valid/relevant, but firstly, let's focus on the record of trainer Nicky Richards' horses when ridden by Brian Harding here at Ayr since the start of 2014, where we see 15 winners from 43 (34.9% SR) for 9.06pts at an ROI of 21.1%, which is pretty decent.
In terms of this particular contest, those 43 runners are...
- 15/41 (36.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+27% ROI) as males
- 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.7% ROI) over 1m6f to 3m0.5f
- 15/36 (41.7% SR) for 16.1pts (+44.6% ROI) at the ages of 4 to 7
- 12/26 (46.2% SR) for 11.5pts (+44.1% ROI) from horses on debut or who were in the top 3 LTO
- 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 7.77pts (+29.9% ROI) in handicaps
- 11/25 (44% SR) for 16.75pts (+65% ROI) at odds of 11/10 to 9/2
- 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 2.9pts (+13.2% ROI) over hurdles
- 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 10.6pts (+66.1% ROI) running 4 to 10 weeks since their last run
- 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.47pts (+34.4% ROI) were winners LTO
And with this being a handicap, a further analysis of those 26 handicappers shows us that they are...
- 7/25 (28% SR) for 8.77pts (+35.1% ROI) as males
- 7/20 (35% SR) for 15.77pts (+78.9% ROI) over 2m to 3m0.5f
- 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 14.77pts (+77.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 to 8
- 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 14.77pts (+77.7% ROI) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
- 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 15.77pts (+87.6% ROI) running 2 to 10 weeks since their last run
- 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 6.3pts (+48.4% ROI) over hurdles
- 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 7.18pts (+59.8% ROI) from horses who were in the top 2 LTO
- 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 1.86pts (+26.6% ROI) were winners LTO
And the Brian Harding - Nicky Richards - Ayr - 5 to 8 yr old Male handicappers - 9/2 and shorter - 2m to 3m 0.5f - 14 to 70 DSLR angle is 7/10 (70% SR) for 23.77pts (+237.7% ROI).
In addition to the above data, since the start of 2014 Nicky Richards' handicap debutants are 9 from 18 (50% SR) for 35.3pts (+196.1% ROI) profit with hurdlers winning 8 of 17 (47.1% SR) for 31pts (+182.3% ROI) profit, whilst runners here at Ayr are 2 from 4 for 7.44pts (+186.1% ROI).
So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Takingrisks at 11/4 BOG with Hills, who are currently (8.05pm) one of around half a dozen or so firms offering those odds. To check that's still the case, simply...
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