Saturday's pick was...
3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...
...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...
...that number 1...
To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.
So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...
- all came in handicaps
- 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
- 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
- and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners
Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...
- 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
- 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
- 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
- 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
- 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
- 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
- and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill
...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).
The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...
The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...
...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...
- 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
- 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
- 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
- 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
- 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
- 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
- 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
- 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
- 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
- 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
- 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle
...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!