Stat of the Day, 29th September 2014
David Probert set a blistering record-breaking pace aboard Kinematic on Saturday, so much so that they were a good 4 lengths clear with over a furlong to run. As expected, the filly tired and the pack came back towards her, but she dug deep to score by a length and a quarter, having made all.
We backed her at 11/4 BOG and even a small Rule 4 deduction bringing our bet down to 5/2 was slightly better than the 9/4 SP. It rounded off a great week for SotD and we currently stand in a position for four winners from our last five selections.
Today, however, is tough. Mondays generally lack quality and quantity of runners as well as a dearth of workable stats. But I do have one that ticks a box or two in the...
Where I think Corals have overpriced Alexandrakollontai by offering 6/1 BOG.
Trainer Alistair Whillans isn't the most prolific out there, but he does as well at Hamilton as he does anywhere else, if not better. In the last two years, his horses have won 6 of 44 (13.6% SR) handicap contests here at Hamilton and the 21.8pts level stakes profits are the equivalent of 49.6 % of all stakes.
Alexandrakollontai drops a grade from Class 3 today and since 2010, Alistair Whillans has had some success dropping horses down a level with 14 winners from 87 (16.1% SR) producing level stakes profits of 65.3pts at an ROI of 75%.
And the horse is no stranger to this track having already won four times here (all over course and distance), which helps to verify that former course and distance winners do well when returning to Hamilton, especially if they were winners last time out.
Horses who won last time out (anywhere!) who then run at Hamilton with CD next to their name have won 29 times from 133 return visits since 2009. This 21.8% strike rate has generated 26.5pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%.
Those figures are improved if we remove the non-profitable short-priced runners and the longshots we'd not back anyway. So, at odds of 9/4 (I don't like going much lower for SotD!) up to 12/1, the figures read 24 winners from 111 (21.6% SR) for 36.5pts (+32.9% ROI) profit.
Alexandrakollontai is by no means a shoo-in here, but as a 4-time course and distance winner bringing the best recent form (12251) to the race, she'd be the one I'd want to back based on form. The above stats add more credence to the selection and although this isn't the strongest pick I've made of late, I think there's some value in the price.
Alexandrakollontai is priced at 6/1 BOG in a race where the first four get paid out in an E/W bet, so that option is definitely open to you, but it's a 1 pt win bet for me at 6/1 BOG with Coral. Others firms' priced can be seen quickly and clearly if you...
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