Stat of the Day: 2nd Dec 2011

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 2nd December 2011

In the first ever Geegeez 'Race of the Day' (an occasional replacement for Stat of the Day here), I'm going to take a quick look at the Devon Marathon Handicap Chase, over four miles of Exeter's Haldon Hill.

Exeter 1.30

Ten of the last eleven winners were aged seven to ten years old. This is a knock against Pass Me By and Diamond Brook.

Nine of the last eleven winners carried 10-11 or more in weight. Knocks for the lightly-weighted Or Sing About, Pass Me By, Notabotheronme, Dusty Dane and El Diego.

Nick Williams (twice), Venetia Williams, the Alners, Jonjo O'Neill and Nigel Twiston-Davies have all won this since 2004, implying we need a trainer who has a staying chaser pedigree.

Nine of the last eleven winners were in the first three last time out. Those who were placed last time are Power Pack Jack, Quazy De Joie, Tarateeno, Dusty Dane and El Diego.

Nine of the last eleven winners were rated 105+ by the official handicapper. Or Sing About, Pass Me By, Notabotheronme, Dusty Dane and El Diego don't look good enough on that score.

Those rested 31 or more days have an excellent strike rate, when compared to those coming into the race of shorter breaks.

Nine of the eleven winners were Irish-bred. A French bred has never won.

The horse which ticks all the boxes - eight years old, carrying 11-05, rated 114, won last time out, rested for 33 days, Irish bred, and trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies - is Power Pack Jack.

But... you need to know that this horse makes mistakes, and his rider - young Sam Twiston-Davies - is a very aggressive pilot who often asks for a lot from his mounts. That's the risk, of course, and at 5/1, I reckon it's a risk worth playing.

Those who score well on the profile without beating PPJ's perfect fit, are Tarateeno, Diamond Brook and Incentivise.

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1 reply
  1. Ian - SP2A Owner says:

    Matt

    Great write up.

    One stat that strikes me is how few of these have form OVER 3 miles. I like the NT-D horse but 3 miles for a “front runner” as brave as he is – bit of a tough ask.

    In my humble opinion therefore the horse who ticks most boxes and has form over 3 and a half miles is the top one Incentivise and Richard Lee is also in the “staying chaser trainer” category…

    Lets hope its a cracking race and most importantly – they all get back safe and sound…

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