Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Natural Scenery @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 10/11 Raced wide in touch, headway 3f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, kept on but lost by a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shimba Hills @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner last time out, when ridden by today's jockey over course and distance three weeks ago, so conditions are hardly alien today!

He's trained by Lawney Hill, who is 10 from 47 (21.3% SR) for 59.9pts (+127.5% ROI) here at Plumpton over the past seven years, of which...

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  • males are 9/40 (22.5%) for 61.2pts (+153.1%)
  • those returning from a 16-60 day break are 6/30 (20%) for 61pts (+203.3%)
  • hurdlers are 4/24 (16.7%) for 32.3pts (+134.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/21 (23.8%) for 60.5pts (+287.9%)
  • and those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 3/7 (42.9%) for 17.9pts (+255.7%)

Meanwhile, Nick himself is 5 from 25 (20% SR) for 8pts (+32% ROI) at this track in the last two years, winning 4 of 18 handicap contests (22.2%) for 12.5pts (+69.6%) and 2 of 6 (33.3%) Class 4 races for profits of 16.3pts at an ROI of 271.7%.

With regards to Shimba Hills, since 2008 handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and who were also winners (anywhere, any trip) last time out are 322/1636 (19.7% SR) for 203.2pts (+12.5% ROI), of which those who did win over course and distance LTO are 233/1125 (20.7%) for 178.3pts (+15.9%).

Of those 1125 LTO C&D winners....

  • males are 194/925 (21%) for 164.5pts (+17.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 64/302 (21.2%) for 67.8pts (+22.5%)
  • here at Plumpton : 8/26 (30.8%) for 33.9pts (+130.2%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 4/13 (30.8%) for 11.6pts (+89.4%)

And finally...he's Lawney Hill's only runner at this track today, but since 2009 when sending just one runner to a meeting to run in a hurdle contest, she has 43 winners from 294 (14.6% SR) for 101.2pts (+34.4% ROI) profit, including...

  • handicap hurdlers : 31/204 (15.2%) for 76.8pts (+37.6%)
  • Class 4 runners : 20/141 (14.2%) for 90.8pts (+64.4%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 4/12 (33.3%) for 44.3pts (+369.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shimba Hills @ 7/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 9 others (so we should all get the same price!) at 11.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

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