Saturday's Pick was...
7.45 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, smooth headway over 1f out, chased winner approaching final furlong, kept on under pressure)
We start a new month with Monday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Isabella @ 9/2 BOG
In a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £8022 to the winner...
Having looked at the racecard which suggested this race could be won by a solo front runner, I looked more closely at the pace stats, which suggested our girl was the most likely of the 6 to go forward. Stall 1 with the rail is also a bonus, as is the fact that she's trained by David O'Meara.
The trainer is a positive for me, because in one of my (many!) notebooks, next to Hamilton, I have written DOM/5-9f/2-5yo/ev-11. It's hardly the Enigma Code, but what it means is that I look out for David O'Meara 2 to 5 yr old runners at Hamilton, competing over 5 to 9 furlongs at odds of evens to 11/1, because over the last five seasons, plus this one, such beasts are 21 from 97 (21.7%) for 17.2pts (+17.8% ROI), a good starting point.
I'm not suggesting you back them blindly, although you could to good effect (Alsvinder also fits this bill in the 7.15 here today), but more specifically, such runners are...
- 17/75 (22.7%) for 25.6pts (+34.2%) racing 6-30 days after their last outing
- 17/52 (32.7%) for 46.7pts (+89.8%) after finishing 2nd to 5th last time out
- 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.9pts (+88.1%) on good to firm ground
- 7/25 (28%) for 13.4pts (+53.6%) in the months of July & August
- 5/18 (27.8%) for 4.29pts (+23.8%) after a defeat of just 0.25 to 2 lengths LTO
- 3/18 (16.6%) for 3.72pts (+20.6%) ridden by today's jockey David Nolan
- and 3 from 11 (27.3%) for 3.52pts (+32%) this year so far
As above, David Nolan takes the ride today and he's in really good touch right now with a 14 day record of 10 wins from 31 (32.3% SR) for 9.49pts (+30.6% ROI), whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 5 of 13 (38.5%) for 8.49pts (+65.3%).
Quite a few of those rides were for David O'Meara and together they are 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.14pts (+24.3%) over the last fortnight and 2/5 (40%) for 6.32pts (+126.4%) in the past week.
This is not isolated/random success/form, as the pair are 65/487 (13.4% SR) for 16.1pts (+3.3% ROI) together since the start of 2012, with Class 3 to 6 handicaps seeming their strongest suit with 49 winners from 331 (14.8%) yielding 54.5pts at an ROI of 16.5%. It is these 331 C3-6 'cappers I want to focus on here, because with today's contest at the forefront of my thoughts, they are...
- 43/285 (15.1%) for 44.4pts (+15.6%) on the Flat
- 44/22 (19.8%) for 102.7pts (+46.3%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 (which roughly equate to my SotD cut-off points)
- 24/140 (17.1%) for 68pts (+48.6%) running off a mark (OR) in the 80's
- 13/88 (14.8%) for 18.8pts (+21.4%) as 4 yr olds
- 11/63 (17.5%) for 28pts (+44.5%) over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
- 13/57 (22.8%) for 36.4pts (+63.9%) in Scotland
- 10/55 (18.2%) for 37.4pts (+68%) from female runners
- 8/40 (20%) for 13.67pts (+34.2%) this year alone
- and 3 from 16 (18.75%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) here at Hamilton
...pointing us towards...a 1pt win bet on Isabella @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!