Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.10 Ripon : Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 : Tracked leaders, took keen hold, not clear run over 2f out, soon switched right, 2nd over 1f out, challenged inside final furlong, ran on, led towards finish...

After a good September, we now kick October off with the...

4.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air of York @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is 1 from 2 over course and distance and as such is the only previous C&D winner in the field today. He's 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) when sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter and makes a quick return after running at Leicester 7 days ago.

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His trainer John Flint has 12 winners from 65 (+18.5% SR) for profits of 84.1pts (+129.3% ROI) here at Bath since 2009, including...

  • handicappers @ 12/62 (19.4%) for 87.1pts (+140.34%)
  • at Class 6  : 8/36 (22.2%) for 72.8pts (+202.2%)
  • after just 6-15 days rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 27.2pts (+104.6%)

And this quick return seems to be one of Mr Flint's tried methods, as more generally since the start of 2015, his horses running again 3 to 15 days after their last run are 22/107 (20.6% SR) for 76.7pts (+71.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 21/93 (22.6%) for 86.5pts (+93%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/42 (28.6%) for 51.9pts (+123.5%)
  • 3-5 yr olds are 7/36 (19.4%) for 37.4pts (+104%)
  • and on soft ground : 5/17 (29.4%) for 8.4pts (+49.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Air of York @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfred, Sunbets & Totesport at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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