Stat of the Day, 30th November 2015
Saturday's Result :
1.30 Newcastle : Swing Hard @ 7/2 BOG UR at 5/2 (In touch on outside, pressed leader 10th, 2 lengths down when blundered badly 4 out, not recover and unseated rider soon after)
Monday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Golden Stunner @ 11/4 BOG
Well, we'll start with trainer Ralph Beckett, who is no stranger to SotD, as he's a trainer I've called on several times in the past to good effect. You see, the thing abour Ralph (Raif!) is that you can "bet and forget" with his horses, ie no need to pick and choose, just back all of them and collect winnings!
Basically, over the last eight years, backing all his runners would have seen you place 3232 bets, but you'd have hit 523 winners (16.2% SR) for level stakes profits of £11,742 (+18.2% ROI) if you'd had a £20 bet each time. 16.2% SR & 18.2% ROI are excellent figures of such a large sample size, but inevitably there are ares where his runners perform even better than that and in respect to this selection...
- Class 3 to 5 runners are 424/2428 (17.5% SR) for 538.8pts (+22.2% ROI)
- non-handicappers are 287/1684 (17% SR) for449.6pts (+26.7% ROI)
- females are 260/1630 (16% SR) for 429.1pts (+26.3% ROI)
- in maidens, they are 227/1235 (18.4% SR) for 323.6pts (+26.2% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 157/1022 (15.4% SR) for 286.1pts (+28% ROI)
- on the A/W : 185/913 (20.3% SR) for357.7pts (+39.2% ROI)
- in females only races : 126/784 (16.1% SR) for 239.8pts (+30.6% ROI)
- here at Kempton : 93/458 (20.3% SR) for 196.2pts (+42.8% ROI)
And 2/3 yr old females in Class 3 to 5 non-hcp maidens are 103/603 (17.1% SR) for 236.3pts (+39.2% ROI), of which they are 29/167 (17.4% SR) for 142.9pts (+85.6% ROI) on the All-Weather.
And there's more than enough there to back the selection up, but I've loads more if needed, so let's throw another one into the equation!
Golden Stunner makes just her fourth career start and this is her A/W debut coming off the back of a 41 day absence since a narrow defeat last time out and since the start of 2010, Ralph Beckett's runners making an A/W debut after 1 to 9 runs on turf are 40/158 (25.8% SR) for 128.8pts (+83.1% ROI). Once again excellent figures that really support my selection, but as always I want to look at the breakdown in more detail, so let's go!
- in non-hcp races : 33/112 (29.5% SR) for 127pts (+113.4% ROI)
- those with just 1 to 3 previous runs : 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 140.2pts (+128.6% ROI)
- those who last ran 16 to 60 days ago : 29/106 (27.4% SR) for 149.9pts (+141.4% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 25/95 (30.5% SR) for 133.9pts (+141% ROI)
- in maidens : 29/93 (31.2% SR) for 137.7pts (+148% ROI)
- females are 22/77 (28.6% SR) for 153.6pts (+199.5% ROI)
- and in female only races : 12/34 (35.3% SR) for 107.9pts (+317.4% ROI)
From the above, 2yr olds in non-hcp maidens with 3 or fewer runs to theire name, the last of which was 16 to 60 days ago are 15 from 46 (32.6% SR) for 141.7pts (+308.1% ROI) with female runners winning 8 of 18 (44.4% SR) for 145.7pts (+809.7% ROI) with a record of 6 from 11 (54.5% SR) for 105.4pts (+958.1% ROI) in female only races.
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 11.30pm?
A 1pt win bet on Golden Stunner @ 11/4 BOG at either the Betfair Sportsbook or via Paddy Power, whilst Betfred & Totesport's 11/4 price won't go BOG until 8.00am, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS