Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

12.50 Kelso : Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, went 2nd next, led between last 2, ridden before last, forged clear on flat to win by 9 lengths)

Monday's last pick of the year runs in the...

1.40 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4614 to the winner...  

Why?

A 7yr old gelding who has been running consistently well over the last 13 months or so, winning 4 and placing a further twice from just nine outings, including an LTO win over 2m7.5f on heavy ground under today's jockey Matt Griffiths 24 days ago.

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Conditions look testing today, but our lad looks well suited to them as to date, his record includes...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 10 under Matt Griffiths
  • 4w, 2pl from 9 at sub-7/1 odds
  • 3w, 1pl from 7 in 2018
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 3w, 1pl from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2w, 1pl from 6 on soft
  • 2w from 4 over the 3m trip
  • 1w from 2 on heavy
  • and 1 from 1 in a visor

In addition to the above, this horse popped up three times on my Query Tool report under my highly-imaginatively titled angles C4/5 hcp chasers, NH softies & Uttox HC chasers!

It doesn't take a genius to work out what those angles are, but let's see why they were flagged up, starting with...

...C 4/5 Hcp Chasers...

Trainer Jeremy Scott + C 4/5 hcp chasers + 2013-18 = 53/252 (21%) for 128.6pts (+51% ROI) backed blindly and these include...

  • at Class 4 : 39/198 (19.7%) for 86.8pts (+43.9%)
  • over 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f : 12/62 (19.4%) for 26.3pts (+42.4%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.6pts (+80%)

...and then we have NH Softies...

Jeremy's NH handicappers on soft or worse are 20/101 (19.8% SR) for 18.5pts (+18.3% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017 and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • at evens to 13/2 : 17/54 (31.5%) for 21.9pts (+40.6%)
  • over 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 13/45 (28.9%) for 39.9pts (+88.7%)
  • and at evens to 13/2 over 2m6f to 3m1.5f : 11/24 (45.8%) for 22.5pts (+93.8%)

...and finally for today, the Uttox HC chasers...

Jeremy Scott + Uttoxeter HC Chasers at 10/1 or shorter = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 22.6pts (+133% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • Class 4 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.7pts (+77.9%)
  • Matt Griffiths : 5/10 (50%) for 24.7pts (+247%)
  • 2m6.5f to 3m : 5/10 (50%) for 24.5pts (+245%)
  • 21-45 dslr : 3/10 (30%) for 5.58pts (+55.8%)
  • and 7/8 yr olds are 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.4%)

...which all steers us towards... a 1pt win bet on Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG, as was available from Betfair & Hills at 6.40pm on Sunday evening, but you could get another half a point from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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