Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.05 York : Defoe @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 Held up towards rear, headway far side of group over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by half a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Pontefract...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in a 5f sprint handicap getting a more than useful 5lb weight for age (WFA) allowance is the icing on top of the main SotD cake before looking at his trainer, Richard Fahey whose record here at "Ponty" stands at 74/406 (18.2% SR) for 144.3pts (35.5% ROI) over the last 9 seasons, but to show I'm not relying on some old data, I'm just going to focus on his record since 2013 ie approx 4.5 seasons.

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In this time, his runners are 46/233 (19.7% SR) for 101pts (+43.3% ROI), from which...

  • those priced in the broad 10/11 to 11/1 spectrum are 45/187 (24.1%) for 70.9pts (+37.9%)
  • those who have raced in the last 7 weeks are 32/165 (19.4%) for 19.2pts (+11.7%)
  • in the June-August mid season period : 21/107 (19.6%) for 92.6pts (+86.6%)
  • on Good ground : 18/101 (17.8%) for 60.1pts (+59.5%)
  • Class 5 : 16/87 (18.4%) for 71.6pts (+82.3%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO : 24/83 (28.9%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • those beaten by 3 lengths or less LTO are 14/52 (26.9%) for 31.7pts (+60.9%)
  • those ridden by Paul Hanagan are 9/36 (25%) for 13.6pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/35 (31.4%) for 32.8pts (+93.8%)
  • and those placed 2nd LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 29.5pts (+101.8%)

And if we're having icing (the WFA) on our cake, we're going to need a cherry too! So the cherry on the icing is the fact that with a Geegeez Speed Rating of 93, he's some 18 clear of his nearest rival and regular forum readers will know that blindly backing our top rated runners at the 5f trip is profitable. Those who didn't know that, really need to subscribe to this thread.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Pontefract...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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