Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.05 Ascot : Mehronissa @ 9/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Took keen hold, chased leaders, headway and edged right 2f out, soon chasing winner, ridden and kept on in closing stages, always held)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG

Why?

Trainer Kim Bailey's record here at Southwell stands at 13 wins from 48 (27.1 % SR) for 34pts (70.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, with hurdlers winning 8 of 32 (25%) for 27.2pts at an ROI of 84.9%.

Gaelic Myth's run today will be the 4000th by an offspring of the prolific, but sadly recently departed Midnight Legend, one of my favourite (as most of you know!) sires ever. And with 550 wins under their belts so far at a strike rate of 13.75% recording profits of 518.9pts at an ROI of 14.5%, it's pretty obvious why I like backing them!

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To make such profit from backing so many horses blindly is tremendous and it does thorw up hundreds of profitable angles to take and I've covered many of them  in the near 4 years of SotD so far, so I'll try not to bore you too much and keep it simple!

Since 2009, these Midnight Legend progeny are 71/501 (14.2% SR) for 213.1pts (+42.5% ROI) in handicap hurse contests at 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f, from which...

  • those running at the same class or up/down one grade from LTO : 70/458 (15.3%) for 249.9pts (+54.6%)
  • at Class 4  : 27/182 (14.8%) for 112.2pts (+61.7%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 12/102 (11.8%) for 124.4pts (+121.9%)

Gaelic Myth was a winner when last seen, although that was at Ludlow back in May, some 148 days ago, but he takes a slight drop in trip and also drops down a class to run here, so if race-ready, this should well be within his capabilities. This is backed up by the fact that Kim Bailey's handicap hurdlers dropping down a class are 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 26.4pts (+36.1% ROI) at odds of Evens to 12/1 since 2009.

Of these 73 runners...

  • Class 4/5 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 32.6pts (+51.8%)
  • 4-6 yr olds : 10/44 (22.7%) for 46.2pts (+104.9%)
  • at trips of 2m4f to 3m1f : 8/41 (19.5%) for 33.9pts (+82.6%)

AND...4-6 yr olds racing over 2m4f to 3m1f at Class 4/5 are 7/21 (33.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+238.9% ROI) with a record of 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.9pts (+243.2%) since the start of 2014.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG, which was offered by both Hills and BetVictor at 7.45pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Southwell.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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