Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn 2 hours before race due to swelling)

Monday's runner goes in the...

1.35 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crazy Jack @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

I don't know what was in jockey David Bass' Christmas Punch, but he's absolutely flying after the resumption of duties. Since returning from the sport's short Christmas break he has ridden 7 winners from 13 with a 4 from 6 record over hurdles: astonishing!

And it's not often I get to tell you that a jockey is blindly profitable to follow long-term either, but David is. And if you backed every single one of his 867 hurdle rides over the last seven years, you'd have collected 129 times (14.9% SR) for a total of £636 to £10 stakes at an ROI of 7.33%. The ROI isn't huge, but it's solidly consistent and is a good starting point for further analysis as follows...

  • In handicaps, he is 64/497 (12.9% SR)( for 192.2pts (+38.7% ROI)
  • On horses rated 105 to 138 : 67/313 (21.4% SR) for 172.8pts (+55.2% ROI)
  • At Class 2/3 : 30/180 (16.7% SR) for 71.5pts (+39.7% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 30/154 (19.5% SR) for 50.2pts (+32.6% ROI)
  • Over the 3m trip : 9/54 (16.75 SR) for 25pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • Here at Ludlow : 6/37 (16.2% SR) for 9.72pts (+26.3% ROI)

And today David rides Crazy Jack for Kim Bailey, a trainer who has a decent record of his own here at Ludlow over the last three years, as his Class 3 to 5 runners at this venue have gone on to win 9 of 47 races (19.2% SR) for 26pts profit at an ROI of 55.3%, from which...

  • 4 to 8 yr olds are 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 29pts (+65.9% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-7 to 11-8 are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 33pts (+89.3% ROI)
  • Hurdlers are 5/32 (15.6% SR) for 11.6pts (+36.3% ROI)
  • Thoes priced at 8/1 or shorter are 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 9.4pts (+32.4% ROI)
  • Male runners are 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 25.2pts (+93.3% ROI)
  • And to tie all the data together, those ridden by David Bass are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 9.6pts of level stakes profit at an ROI of 68.3%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.30pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Crazy Jack and that's at 7/1 BOG with either Paddy Power or BetVictor, but I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ludlow

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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