Saturday's Result :
3.15 Leicester : Theydon Thunder @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Held up, towards rear, effort 2f out, headway over 1f out, no impression)
Saturday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Barman at 5/2 BOG
Just four runs to date for this 5yr old gelding, all over hurdles, all under today's jockey Nico de Boinville and all over today's 2m trip. The going is forecasted as good and two of Barman's runs have been on good ground, so it would seem that conditions are ideal for him here.
He has been progressive so far having been pulled up at the last on debut, then finishing 5th of 15 next time out. He then came here to Worcester and won over this course and distance by a length and a half just over six weeks ago, with next/last run resulting on a comprehensive 7 lengths success at Uttoxeter last Monday.
He ran off a mark of 110 that day and had horses rated 112 and 115, 7 and 8 lengths respectively behind him without him having to be driven to a finish, so today's mark of 117 for his handicap debut should still be a very winnable mark.
Both trainer and jockey are in good form individually and collectively and I won't bother/bore you with the very well known figures regarding the De Boinville/Henderson partnership, suffice to say they do work well together!
However, what I will tell you is that handicap hurdlers who won LTO and now return to the scene of a course and distance success are 307 from 1550 (19.8% SR) for profits of 214.7pts (+13.9% ROI) since the start of 2008, which is an excellent return from such a large sample size. I do, however, appreciate that 180-ish bets a year from angle might be too much for some of you, so why not try the following angles taken from the original stat...
- males are 257/1284 (20%) for 181.9pts (+14.2%)
- those with a run in the last 30 days : 235/1106 (21.3%) for 181.5pts (+16.5%)
- on good ground : 101/513 (19.7%) for 144.7pts (+28.2%)
- 5yr olds are 55/213 (25.8%) for 75.4pts (+35.7%)
- and here at Worcester : 16/68 (23.5%) for 35.8pts (+52.6%)
Also, in addition the horse's suitability, the trainer/jockey performances and the above stats, we should quickly look at Nicky Henderson's record with his hurdlers on handicap debut and that quick look tells me that since the start of 2011, they've won an impressive 35 of 166 (21.1% SR) for level stakes profits of some 121.6pts at an ROI of 73.3%. And with today's race in mind, those 166 runners are...
- 26/106 (24.5%) for 124.8pts (+117.7%) when rated (OR) 90 to 130
- 25/75 (33.3%) for 50.7pts (+67.3%) at odds of evens to 11/2
- 16/67 (23.9%) for 103.3pts (+154.2%) on good ground
- 15/56 (26.8%) for 77.2pts (+137.9%) over trips of 2m/2m0.5f
- and they're 4 from 10 (40%) for 25.94pts (+259.4%$) under Nico de Boinville.
...so the play is a 1pt win bet on Barman at 5/2 BOG with either Boylesports or Betway, who led the market at 7.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS