Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th June 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

7.40 Lingfield : Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 7/4 (Made all, ridden and ran on final furlong to win by a length)

We continue with Monday's...

4.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner...  

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding with 4 wins and 2 further places from his last 8 starts, including winning over course and distance here last time out. That was in a Class 3 contest 26 days ago and although he's up 3lbs for that effort, he does now drop in class and will hopefully have too much in hand for his rivals, whose own form figures don't make good reading!

He has won 5 of 29 over hurdles, which isn't a bad return at these lower grade contests with 4 wins from 23 in handicap races. Of note today from those 29 efforts over hurdles, he is...

  • 4 from 12 wearing a tongue tie (all in hcps)
  • 4 wins and a place from 6 at this 2m1f trip (3+1 from 5 in hcps)
  • 2 from 3 here at Newton Abbot (1/2 in hcps)
  • and 2 from 2 over course and distance (1/1 in a hcp : LTO!)

In addition to his own perceived suitability, since the start of 2013 in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests, horses with the CD icon next to their name and either won or were beaten by less than 2 lengths last time out are 233/1060 (225 SR) for 197.1pts (+18.6% ROI), from which...

  • at Class 3/4 : 167/686 (24.3%) for 245.5pts (+35.8%)
  • running at the same C&D as LTO : 150/664 (22.6%) for 127.2pts (+19.2%)
  • C&D winners LTO : 138/621 (22.2%) for 97.4pts (+15.7%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 123/567 : 21.7%) for 142.1pts (+25.1%)
  • on good ground : 95/413 (23%) for 165.3pts (+40%)
  • 9 yr olds are 26/111 (23.4%) for 82.1pts (+74%)
  • in June : 17/63 (27%) for 60.5pts (+96.1%)
  • and here at Newton Abbot : 10/44 (22.7%) for 36.8pts (+83.5%)

And based around the above filters...Class 3/4 on Good/Good to Soft, horses who won over C&D LTO 16-60 days earlier = 33/132 (25% SR) for 107.8pts (+81.6% ROI), with those running in June winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 49.8pts (+383.3%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first to break cover) at 4.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
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