Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.45 Newmarket : Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up in touch, challenged over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on strongly towards finish to win by 5 lengths) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Stepover @ 3/1 BOG a 4-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4809 to the winner... 


With 4 wins and 3 runner-up finishes from her last ten outings, this seven year old mare clearly brings the best form to the table today. Also of note from her career to date, she has 2 wins from 5 over 16.5/17 furlongs, 2 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 1-7 runners and she's 1 from 1 here at Hereford via a win over course and distance.

Her trainer Alex Hales hasn't had many runners at this venue, but those that have been sent here have won 3 from 5 (60%) for 11.57pts (+231.3% ROI) since the start of last year with a runner-up thrown in for good measure. And of these 5 Hereford runners...

  • hurdlers are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.57pts (+314.2%)
  • handicappers are 2 from 4 950%) for 4.73pts (+118.2%)
  • and those racing over today's trip are 2 from 2 for 10.45pts!

But the real reason I was drawn to this race originally is because my Geegeez query tool flagged it up for me, as Alex Hales is one of my bookmarked trainers in Class 4/5 handicap hurdles. In Class 4 contests, he is 14 from 85 (16.5% SR) for 11.28pts (+13.3% ROI) since the start of 2015 and with today's contest in mind, here's how he got his 14 winners...

  • 9 came from 22 (40.9%) runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter generating 16.5pts (+74.8%)
  • 8 from 33 (24.2%) runners in the September-December period for 23.53pts (+71.3%)
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) aged 7 or 8 giving 22.21pts at 116.9%
  • 7 from 36 (19.4%) coming off a break of 26-75 days providing 19.1pts (+53.1%)
  • 6 from the 26 (23.1%) racing over trips of 2m1f or shorter for profits of 27pts (+104%)
  • 4 came from just 9 races (44.4%) of 7 or fewer runners, giving 24.25pts at a massive ROI of 269.4%
  • and there was 1 winner from 2 (50%) here at Hereford for a 2.12pts (+106%) profit

...whilst 7 yr olds priced at 5/1 or shorter in the final third of the year are 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 11.45pts (+229.1% ROI)... us... a 1pt win bet on Stepover @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 2.15 Hereford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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