Stat of the Day, 5th October 2015
Lizzie Kelly gave After Eight Sivola a great ride on Saturday at Fontwell, stalking the leaders before hitting the front at the last hurdle.
And despite the horse wandering around a little up the hill towards the finish, as many do at Fontwell, the horse had enough left in him to open up a five length lead on the run in to quickly put the race to bed.
The win gave us a good end to the week, sweetened by the fact we got a drift out from my advised 5/1 odds to an SP of 6/1.
Monday's pick is later than normal, as I was travelling last night, normal service to be resumed for tomorrow's pick, but for today it's the...
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And an 11/2 BOG bet on Stardrifter in this Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over a mile on good to firm ground.
This 3yr old gelding has been running well this season, winning twice and placing 3 times from just eight starts and has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 on the good to firm ground you rarely see at this time of year. He has won at both 7f and 8.5f, so the trip should be fine and he's also won at a higher grade than this in the past.
We can also see that he's 2 from 6 going left handed and 2 from 5 in races of 9 to 11 runners. As a 3yr old, he gets a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance, doubled by the 3lb claim of highly promising jockey Jack Garrity today and those allowances should really help to keep Stardrifter competitive here.
Jack Garrity has already ridden six winners from just twenty attempts (30% SR) here at Pontefract and a 1pt level stake bet on each returns 7.4pts profit at an ROI of 37%. He's 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.8pts (+45.9% ROI) in handicaps here and he's 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 6.28pts (+62.8% ROI) when using his 3lb claim.
Jack Garrity has won 3 of 8 races (37.5% SR) for 5.67pts (+70.7% ROI) when claiming 3lbs in a Pontefract handicap, of which he's 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 6.92pts (+173% ROI) when riding for today's trainer...
...Richard Fahey, who also does well here at Pontefract, having saddled up 61 winners from 310 runners in the last seven seasons. This 19.7% strike rate is excellent and has generated level stakes profits of 159.5pts at an ROI of 51.4%.
Of those 310 runners, there's a 28/127 (22.1% SR) record on good to firm ground that has yielded 52.3pts at an ROI of 41.1%, whilst his Class 5 runners are 20/123 (16.3% SR) for 52pts (+42.3% ROI) here.
His Pontefract milers are 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 18pts (+31% ROI) profit and when using Jack Garrity, Mr Fahey has five winners from ten (50% SR) and 14.67pts (+146.7% ROI) profit.
And that's why I'm backing Stardrifter at 11/2 BOG with Coral, who refund on defeats of a head or less, whilst SkyBet are also offering the same odds, as you'll see when you...
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