Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Newbury : Bloody Mary @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/4 Chased leaders, pushed along and outpaced 3 out, weakened before next

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Goring One7/2 BOG

Why?

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A Class 5 handicap chase over 2m 7.5f on heavy (soft in places) ground and a horse who came back to form LTO, winning a Class 4 contest by 15 lengths at Fontwell 20 days ago, despite failing to make the frame in his three previous outings (more on this shortly!)

He's actually 2 from 3 over fences at Lingfield and although he's up in trip today, he does already have a couple of wins over longer distances than today. And whilst he boasts a decent 4/13 record at Class 4, he no takes a drop in class, which can only help, you'd think.

His trainer Anna Newton-Smith has 3 wins from 8 here at Lingfield over the last two years, all on ground rated as soft or heavy, but now to the horse, because...

...the three unplaced runs ahead of an LTO win are very important, as since the start of 2010 in UK handicap chases...horses priced at 11/8 to 10/1 who won LTO 11-25 days ago, but failed to place in any of their previous three (or more) consecutive efforts are 116/507 (22.9% SR) for 123.7pts profit at an ROI of 24.4%.

And to be honest, that's a robust enough stat on which to base a bet. However, I fully appreciate that not all of you want over 70 bets a year from just one angle, so in terms of today's contest, those 507 returners to form are...

  • 108/463 (23.3%) for 139.4pts (+30.1%) with an OR of 81-139
  • 89/359 (24.8%) for 130.7pts (+36.4%) over trips of 2m4f to 3m5.5f
  • 68/277 (24.6%) for 90pts (+32.5%) in the November to March (inclusive) period
  • 55/240 (22.9%) for 75.5pts (+28.1%) from those who ran/won at Class 4 LTO
  • 39/168 (23.2%) for 75.9pts (+45.2%) from those last seen 20 to 25 days earlier
  • 24/99 (24.2%) for 17.6pts (+17.8%) at Class 5
  • 18/66 (27.3%) for 25.6pts (+38.8%) from those winning by 10 lengths or more LTO
  • 16/61 (26.2%) for 17.5pts (+28.8%) on heavy ground
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 2.7pts (+33.6%) here at Lingfield.

AND...if you wanted to use the above breakdown to form yourself a composite microsystem good for around 10-15 bets a season, how about...

...those rated 81-139 racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f in November to March after winning at Class 4 LTO? Such runners are 28/91 (30.8% SR) for 66.5pts at an ROI of 73.1%, of which...

  • those last seen 20-25 days back = 14/35 (40%) for 50.8pts (+145.2%)
  • won by 5-15 lengths LTO = 10/27 (36.4%) for 25.14pts (+93.1%)
  • on heavy = 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.95pts (+108.7%)
  • and here at "leafy" 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.55pts (+118.4%)

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Goring One 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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