Stat of the Day, 6th October 2014
Calm Attitude was withdrawn from the race on Saturday on a vet's cert (knocked joint), so we've no action to report on. It meant that last week was a 5-day week and although we missed an opportunity on Saturday, I'm happy to have banked 6.1pts from the week overall.
As you might recall, Friday's runner was a winner, so I hope to double up with one today in the...
And a 5/1 BOG runner, Placidia, from the in-form David Lanigan stable...
In the last month, David has saddled up 7 winners and 4 placers from just 17 runners and if you had staked just £10 on each of them, the 41.2% strike rate would have netted you £80.70 profit at an ROI of 47.5%, not bad at all over a month. All 7 winners came from 11 handicap runs (63.6% SR and 14.1pts @ 127.9% ROI) and none of his runners were priced higher than 10/1.
Today's jockey George Baker has ridden 4 winners from 5 from that group of 11 horses above with that 80% strike rate generating 7.9pts profit at an ROI of 158%
David's overall record is profitable anyway...
David had a few runners out in 2008, but his first proper season was the 2009 one and since then, you could actually turn a (small) profit from blindly backing all his runners. 121 winners to date from 713 runners gives a decent 17% strike rate yiedling 64.7pts profit at an ROI of 9.1%, which although not spectacular, does beat the banks and also gives me a starting point to work from! 😀
In handicap contests only David's record reads as 79 winners from 353 runners (22.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.3pts (+17.1% ROI), figures which are for more palatable for SotD purposes, but by eliminating the longer-priced horses that I wouldn't put up on this feature, the figures suddenly take on a very attractive look!
With a very simple 10/1 odds cap, we only lose 2 handicap winners, but discard 61 losers leaving us with figures of 77 winners from 290 (26.6% SR) for 89.2pts (+30.8% ROI), which is more in line with what I like to work with.
As mentioned earlier, jockey George Baker is 4/5 on these horses for 7.9pts (+158% ROI).
Placidia is one of my "back to form" horses...
Regular readers will now that I take an interest in horses fitting certain criteria after they've recently won after some poor runs. Last time out, Placidia was a winner at this trip in a Class 4 handicap after finishes of 854 in her previous three runs. She steps up in trip here today, but horses fitting the following conditions tend to do well after a win. What I'm looking for is...
Winner last time out after 3 (or more!) consecutive unplaced efforts / Running in a flat handicap of 7f to 1m4f in trip / Up 1 Class from LTO's win & running at a trip no more than 1 furlong longer or shorter than last time out.
It's really not as complicated as it looks, it's just hard to put into written form! 😀 And it might seems like I've engineered a bit of a niche here, but since 2009, there has actually been 470 such runners, of which 73 (15.5% SR) have won back-to-back races generating 193.4pts profit at an ROI of 41.1%.
Those running at today's Class 3 level are 10/60 (16.7% SR) for 28.2pts (+47% ROI) profit.
So, we've a horse, jockey and trainer all in form and Placidia looks pretty well treated even with a 7lb rise for her last win. She "officially" won by two lengths, but had the race sewn up with more than two furlongs to run and really could have won by whatever distance she and her jockey wanted. She gets a 7lb weight for age allowance today, which is sure to help too.
After just 10 starts to date (2 wins and 2 places), Placidia is still relatively unexposed in comparison with her rivals here and she' had just the one run at this trip, that win last time out. She has looked largely progressive to date and she probably wouldn't need much more than her last effort to take this one, especially if kept handily in touch with the leaders until the 2 pole, in line with her two previous wins.
A quick word about the 5/1 BOG odds, which are a little higher than most (but not all, see the last two weeks!) of our winners for SotD, but I'm happy with this price as it looks too long. SkyBet cut her from 11/2 to 9/2 whilst I was typing, so we've already missed half a point and she is already as low as 4/1 with Bet365. In truth, I wouldn't be surprised to see her run at 7/2 or even lower, but time will tell!
So, for me, it's a 1pt win bet on Placidia at 5/1 BOG with Coral. Follow me by all means, or take the same price from Boylesports or Paddy Power. Failing that, you can, of course, always...
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