Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

1.35 Wincanton : Virgilio @ 5/2 BOG - PU at 7/4 (Pressed leader, pushed along when hit 13th and lost 2nd, soon outpaced and struggling, tailed off 4 out, soon pulled up)

Many thanks to Steve for stepping into the breech in my absence, but I'm glad to be back with Monday's pick, which goes in the...

1.30 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Pop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, Nigel Twiston-Davies' runners are 17 from 61 (27.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+37.6% ROI) with handicap chasers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) with Ryan Hatch riding 13 of those 16, including 4 winners (30.8%).

Little Pop is 131 in his last three outings, and won a Class 4, 2 mile handicap chase fairly comfortably by 2.5 lengths when last seen at Hereford a month ago, making him of further interest here, because...

...since the start of 2010, male chasers aged 6-9 who won a hcp chase LTO by 2-10 lengths, 11-150 days ago are 148/557 (26.6% SR) for 109.4pts (+19.7% ROI), including..

  • 136/488 (27.9%) for 97.2pts (+19.9%) from those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days
  • 55/234 (23.5%) for 47.7pts (+20.4%) from those who won by 2-4 lengths LTO
  • and 42/146 (28.8%) for 59.1pts (+410.4%) from 8 yr olds

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Little Pop at 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Hills at 7.00pm on Sunday, with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Kempton

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2 replies
  1. Racehorsingman says:

    Little Pop – 0/7 when officially rated 110+ – Official mark tomorrow, after win at Hereford last time, is 113.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I’m not entirely convinced that hurdle & chase ratings are comparable.
      I also think he could win off 113 in comparison to what he faces here.

      Then again, I might be wrong, just like I am 5 times out of 7 😀

Comments are closed.