Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2015

Carrigmorna King was a non-runner on Saturday, so there's nothing for me to report on from that race, meaning that we can swiftly move on to Monday's selection, which runs in the...

5.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the early evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And now to Monday, generally the toughest day of the week for me, due to a lack of quality and statistical angles to pursue, but we do have a very good strike rate on Mondays despite my concerns and we've hit four winners in the last five Mondays!

I'm aiming to take that to five from six via Nigel Tinkler's Northern raider, the 3yr old gelding Etienne Gerard who makes the lonely near 500-mile round trip from Malton to be the mount of Frankie Dettori in the last race of the day, where he is rated a 7/2 BOG shot.

The effervescent Frankie has been riding really well of late and blindly backing him over the last three months has been profitable with 32 winners from 146 rides (21.9% SR) producing level stakes profits of 25.8pts at an ROI of 17.7%. He's 3 from 10 in the last week and overall, he has a near-18% strike rate on this track.

Etienne Gerard will hoping to avoid any slip ups today (sorry, Stevie G!) in his bid to return to winning ways and also to continue his recent fine form that has seen him finish 1512 in his last four runs.

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He was denied a third win inside five weeks when beaten by just half a length at Hamilton last time out (18 days ago), when he couldn't quite catch A Lovable Rogue who gallantly held on for the win and has subsequently ran a very good race in a narrow defeat as runner-up under a penalty which bodes well for our chances here today.

Having finished 1st and then 2nd in his last two runs, Etienne Gerard becomes the latest of my 1-2/3/4 horses where I look for inform horses who didn't quite get home last time out.

What I look for is... flat handicappers / aged 3 to 5 / 5 to 7 furlongs / Won 2 starts ago / 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 days ago. Now that might seem quite restrictive but since the start of the 2012 campaign, I've had 715 such horses, producing 138 (19.3% SR) winners and 253pts (+35.4% ROI) profits.

Thoese beaten by more than a neck but by less than a length LTO are 27/117 (23.1% SR) for 131.5pts (+112.4% ROI), whilst Class 6 runners are 12/50 (24% SR) for 20.6pts (+41.2% ROI) and those running here at Windsor have won 5 of 21 (23.8% SR) for 1.7pts (+8.1% ROI) profit.

That 7/2 BOG above is currently available from at least six BOG bookies and I'm using 10Bet as they'll refund me up to £10 on each bet I place that gets beat by a head, but for your preferred bookies' prices, simply... here for the betting on the 5.20 Windsor

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Here is today's racecard.

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