Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.45 Wetherby : Native River @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, outpaced from 4 out, kept on but no impression)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Seychelloise @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

When we last saw this 4yr old filly 32 days ago, she was a little unlucky in a three quarter length defeat as a runner up at Lingfield, doing well to get so close after both a slow start and going wide on the turn, but it did continue an excellent record that now consists of seven consecutive top 2 finishes (1221122). In five runs here at Wolverhampton, she has finished 51221 and she is 1221 over course and distance, so it's not unreasonable to expect another good run here.

She may well have only won 3 of 15 starts so far with all three wins from 14 A/W runs, but it's interesting to note that all three career wins have been in A/W handicaps over 6/7 furlongs, ridden by Luke Morris carrying 9-2 or more in fields of 8 to 11 runners whilst wearing blinkers, as she does today! In those conditions, she is 3 from 4 (1112) with the 75% strike rate yielding 25.7pts profit at an ROI of 641.4% with a 2 from 2 record here over course and distance.

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In addition to the above, her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has his team in fine order, with all four of his runners in the last 10 days going on to win. Moreover, since 2008, his runners are 60/311 (19.3% SR) for 100.8pts (+32.4% ROI) here at Wolverhampton, broken down as follows...

  • those last seen 4 to 45 days ago : 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 151.2pts (+67.8% ROI)
  • handicappers : 43/150 (28.7% SR) for 95.6pts (+63.7% ROI)
  • ridden by Luke Morris : 31/134 (23.1% SR) for 30.2pts (+22.5% ROI)
  • those competing at 6/7 f are 20/115 (17.4% SR) for 126pts (+109.6% ROI)
  • on Tapeta : 17/91 (18.7% SR) for 26.9pts (+29.5% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds : 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 20.5pts (+56.8% ROI)
  • those who finished 2nd LTO : 15/34 (44.1% SR) for 7.9pts (+23.2% ROI)

And of course, all the above are in play today, so mix and match as you see fit! Howeber, if we just consider those ridden by Luke Morris since the start of 2012 in handicaps 16 to 45 days after their last run, we get 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 60.3pts profit at an ROI of 177.3%!

 

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.30pm is...

A 1pt bet on Seychelloise and that's at 100/30 BOG with both Coral and BetVictor, whilst there's plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere, so to pick your preferred bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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