Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.00 Kelso : Yala Enki @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 Prominent, went 2nd from before 10th, weakened before 2 out.

We continue with Monday's...

8.15 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King's Steed @ 4/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6, 8.5f A/W handicap on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has discovered a new lease of life since a move to Shaun Lycett's yard late last year and a subsequent switch to A/W racing. Since the "transfer", this lad had made the frame in 5 of 7 starts, winning twice and in those seven starts, he has...

  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 8/8.5 furlongs
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 under today's jockey Kieran Shoemark
  • 1 win from 2 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win from 2 course and distance efforts

His most recent form reads 3113 and he was only denied a hat-trick last time out when staying on into third over a mile at Lingfield under a penalty five days ago, beaten by less than a length. The way he finished that day suggests that an extra 141 yards carrying 5lbs less could well make all the difference today.

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Trainer Shaun Lycett's Wolverhampton Class 6 handicappers are 6 from 48 (12.5% SR) for 57.6pts (+120% ROI) profit since 2012, with his 5 yr olds winning 3 of 15 (20% SR) for 24.95pts (+166.3% ROI).

Meanwhile, today's jockey Kieran Shoemark is in good nick, winning 5 of his 25 (20% SR) races over the past 30 days and also has a 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) record in A/W handicaps on Shaun Lycett's horses with this record yielding 23.7pts (+263.3% ROI) profit. Of those nine, those racing over a mile to a mile and a quarter are 3/6 (50%) for 26.7pts (+445%).

And finally (!) and a bit more generally...

In UK A/W handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs since the start of 2013, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a win or defeat by less than three lengths LTO are 234/937 (25% SR) for 213.7pts (+22.8% ROI), which is impressive enough as a micro, but filtered down into the context of today's race, those 937 quick returners are...

  • 151/660 (22.9%) for 211.5pts (+32%) after a defeat LTO
  • 128/497 (25.8%) for 151.8pts (+30.5%) at Class 6
  • 90/344 (26.2%) for 92.9pts (+27%) having raced 5 days earlier
  • 86/328 (26.2%) for 107.9pts (+32.9%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25/85 (29.4%) for 47.65pts (+56.1%) over the 8.5f trip
  • and 12/37 (32.4%) for 11.6pts (+31.4%) stepping up in trip by half a furlong (officially)

And those Class 6 runners who turned back out 5 days after a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 29/120 (24.2% SR) for 46.6pts (+38.8% ROI)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on The King's Steed @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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17 replies
  1. OliasOfSunhillow says:

    I think it would be better for the reputation of the service not to quote results to BOG. Services are often criticised for quoting to prices (which I dont agree with) but I do agree that BOG reflects badly on a service. No one can get BOG unless they are a proven losing punter and results should never be reported to BOG.

    Reply
      • OliasOfSunhillow says:

        I fail to see how you can be winning let alone getting a bet on with bookmakers unless you are losing but thats not really relevant. What you or I can get or not get is not really the point, a service should record what everyone has access to and the fact is that BOG is only available to a few and if you follow a successful service then it is less likely to be available. As I stated bookie prices are OK but even on this I would exclude certain bookmakers who are well known as firms who advertise prices that they will not take a bet to.

        Reply
        • Chris Worrall says:

          I get on at BOG prices quoted. Surely you’re not suggesting I’m being less than honest?

          Reply
          • OliasOfSunhillow says:

            No I am not as I stated its of no relevance what you or I can get its what is generally available that counts

          • Chris Worrall says:

            The odds I quote are generally available.
            Often better odds can be had at the time I go “live”

    • Blokeshead says:

      I rarely get BOG, being down to just two such bookies willing to take my bets, but you’ve intrigued me, Olias. How should Geegeez report the results? Industry starting price, even if it’s half the price the horse was tipped at the night before (which it often is)?? Betfair SP (occasionally ditto)? The price I got at 5am? The price you got at noon? Some weighted average of all four? Or do you have a better idea?

      I’m quite serious here – there obviously needs to be some way to compare these things for newcomers to this site, although those of us who’ve been following SotD for years probably usually only watch on in amusement/bemusement at these discussions as our betting banks slowly but surely move inexorably in the right direction. But I’m a curious soul, hence the question – what should Chris be doing?

      Reply
      • OliasOfSunhillow says:

        For me the ethical way to proof is to quote bookmaker prices without BOG and excluding the few bookmakers that we all know are something of a joke. It might also be wise to quote the average of the best 3 bookmakers unless one of them is a largish High st bookmaker in which case I think its OK to quote a stand alone price

        Reply
        • Chris Worrall says:

          I think we’ll just crack on as we are, the vast majority of our paying members are happy with the status quo.

          Reply
          • OliasOfSunhillow says:

            I dont think that was called for, I am trying to be helpful and its no way to encourage a trial member to become a paying menmber

          • Chris Worrall says:

            You’re probably right, but some of the flak we cop is unjustified to.

            The whole Gold package allied to the success of SotD is enough encourage trialists to convert to full membership.

  2. OliasOfSunhillow says:

    Chris I have just realised that you are the page author which leaves me puzzled. You cannot deny that any bookmaker finding that you are not losing or even beating prices will immediately stop BOG and just as likely stop you betting ?.

    Reply
  3. OliasOfSunhillow says:

    One final question/s, do you have a historical page which shows all previous selections. Do you proof to any external independent bodies ?

    Reply

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