Stat of the Day, 9th March 2015
Ballyheigue Bay's two length defeat in third place at 9/2 (adv 5/1) was possibly the highlight of a disappointing week for SotD.
I though he ran really well to overcome a series of jumping errors that might have cost him the race, but he plugged on gamely in a pulsating finish. Unfortunately there wasn't enough left in the tank after three miles and the final half furlong saw him slip out of contention.
Last week wasn't a good week by any stretch of the imagination, and I'm seeking a return to winning ways via an unlikely looking source on Monday in the...
Where a 5lb claimer jockey will ride a horse that has lost its last 11 runs and comes from an unheralded training yard. I'm probably not selling it to you just yet, but let me briefly explain why I think Green du Ciel is worth a punt at 11/2 BOG here.
1. He's trained by Brian Barr.
"Who?" might be the question on some lips and you'd be forgiven for asking. He's not the most famous trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but what he does have, he does pretty well with.
Over the last three years his record in NH handicaps with runners priced below 12/1 is 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for 15.2pts (+54.2% ROI) level stakes profits, whilst those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+68.1% ROI), suggesting that Brian is worth following in the usual SotD range of prices.
2. He has lost his last 10 outings, since winning off a mark of 105.
He now runs off a mark of just 85 and the long losing run isn't necessarily a negative point, as since the start of 2011, Class 3 to 5 handicap chasers with 10 or more consecutive defeats behind then that now run at a lower mark than their last win have then returned to winning ways on 269 of 2226 (12.1% SR) occasions, clocking up 522.9pts (+23.5% ROI) profits in the process.
That is, of course, a lot of bets, so let's refine it...
...those priced 5/2 to 7/1 are 135/659 (20.5% SR) for 59.2pts (+9% ROI), of which those running off a mark 18 to 22lbs lower than that last win are 21/60 (35% SR) for 65.3pts (+108.9% ROI)
3. His jockey will be Harry Bannister.
And Harry is no ordinary 5lb claimer. I know from comments/emails that some of you don't like to back claimers, but Harry has an excellent record that's difficult to overlook. Since the start of 2013, he has ridden 27 winners from 156 starts, a decent 17.3% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 41.4pts at an ROI of 26.7%.
Those percentages would be acceptable to most jockeys, professionals and claimers alike, but they are improved further when isolating his performance in handicap company where he is 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 80.6pts (+72.6% ROI) and when his mount has been priced at odds of 9/4 to 8/1, he has 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) and profits of 19.5pts (+36.8% ROI).
He claims 5lbs today and when he has used a 5lb claim in the past, he is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 26.5pts (+64.6% ROI) in handicap company with all 10 winners coming from the 24 runners priced at odds of 6/4 to 10/1. This subsequent 41.7% strike rate has yielded 43.5pts profit to date at an ROI of 181.2%
But, lets face reality for a moment. I'm more than happy with the stats supporting my selection of Green du Ciel, but he's not the strongest selection I've ever made. NH racing is pretty mediocre in the final few days before Cheltenham and I'd much rather have found a bet on the A/W, but there are no meetings today!
Green du Ciel does, however, offer us the potential for some value at the the prices available and some of you might consider a safety-first E/W approach, but for me, its a 1pt win bet on Green du Ciel at 11/2 BOG with Bet365. If you prefer to use SkyBet, they're offering the same deal and for the rest of the market...
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