Stat of the Day, 9th November 2015
Saturday's Result :
2.55 Doncaster : Blue Waltz @ 5/1 BOG : 7th of 12 at 13/2 (Raced wide towards rear, headway over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened final furlong)
Monday's selection runs in the...
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Lamps @ 5/2 BOG
His trainer, Michael Blake, doesn't come to Southwell too often, but since the start of 2014 has had four winners from the 10 horses he has sent here with the 40% strike rate yielding 6.5pts (+65% ROI) profit to date. His hurdlers are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 6.12pts (+87.4% ROI), of which he is 2 from 2 in claimers, both by Lamps and both ridden by today's jockey Nick Schofield, including a win in this very race last year off the same mark as today.
The jockey, Nick Schofield's record in jumps races here at Southwell is decent with 12 wins from 55 (21.8% SR) since the start of 2008 producing profits of 8.92pts at an ROI of 16.2%, from which he is...
- 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 7.7pts (+21.4% ROI) over hurdles
- 5/20 (25% SR) for 10.75pts (+53.75% ROI) over trips of 3m/3m0.5f
- 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 4.12pts (+45.8% ROI) for Michael Blake
- 3/4 (75% SR) for 7.13pts (+178.3% ROI) in claimers
Nick is 5/17 (29.4% SR) in 3m/3m0.5f hurdle races here for profits of 13.75pts (+80.9% SR), of which he's 2/3 in claimers for 5.14pts, including that win in this race last year aboard Lamps.
Lamps, himself, seems to be well suited by today's conditions and has a decent record of 6 wins from 22 starts over hurdles and of note today are the facts, that over hurdles, he is...
- 4/9 in non-handicaps, 3/8 with Nick Schofield, 5/7 at odds of 13/8 to 9/2
- 4 from 4 at Class 5, 2/4 on good to soft with 2 wins on soft, 2/3 after a break of 6 to 9 months
- 2/2 here, inc last yr's C&D win, 2/2 in claimers and 1/1 at this trip.
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Lamps at 5/2 BOG with either of Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes and/or Totesport but the last three don't go BOG until the morning. Therefore, I'm using Bet365 today, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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