Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

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Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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