Stat of the Day, 15th December 2014
No joy on Saturday for ourselves and Team Moore on a poor day for the yard at Lingfield on Saturday.
Tothemoonandback was travelling well enough and in contention until the 12th of 18 fences of the 3 mile trip. He made a mess of that one, lost some impetus/momentum and quite a bit of ground. Joshua cajoled and harried him back into the main pack, but that effort eventually took it toll and he soon dropped back through the pack.
He was eventually the last horse home at 8/1, faring only better than one Pulled-up runner. The Joshua/Gary Moore combo will win plenty more races, as will the horse, but Saturday wasn't their day.
My first glance at Monday's cards didn't exactly inspire me, so I went away, had an "enhanced coffee" and had a second look. The extra additives must have loosened a thought process, because we might just have one in the...
And a 7/2 BOG bet on Marco Botti's 3yo Front Run, who tackles 1m6f for the first time in this 3yo+ handicap.
Marco's horses go really well on the All-Weather, notching up 229 wins from 1349 races since 2008. this impressive 17% strike rate has to date yielded 174pts profit at an ROI of 12.9%, which is a fantastic return from blind backing.
Here at Wolverhampton, his record is 104/489 (21.3% SR) for 158.3pts (+32.4% ROI), which isn't far short of phenomenal.
He also has a good record in these 3yo+ handicap contests with 60 winners from his 311 runners (19.3% SR) in the last six years. These winners have produced 61.4pts profits (+19.8% ROI) from 1pt level stakes bets at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation we have to BOG odds). His 3 yr olds in these open age handicaps are 44/210 (21% SR) for 67.6pts (+32.2% ROI), clearly taking advantage of the weight for age allowances given to them.
If we applied a simple 9/2 odds cap on those 3yr olds, we are then left with a record reading 35 winners from just 93 races (37.6% SR) and excellent profits returned of 36.5pts at an ROI of 39.3% with slightly better figures achieved here at Wolverhampton with 17 wins from 45 (37.8% SR) for 17.9pts (+39.8% ROI) profit.
Front Run was out of the first three home last time out, but although back in 4th place of the nine runners here over a mile and a half 16 days ago, he was only three parts of a length off the winner Heska who beat Moccasin by a nose that day. Moccasin reappears here today and I fancy Front Run to reverse the placings with our runner now 2lbs better off and doing all his best work late on last time, suggesting he'll be happier stepping up the extra 2 furlongs today and guess what, there's a sta to fit that too! 😀
3 yr old runners who were unplaced last time out and then stepped up by 2f or more for a Wolverhampton handicap have won 32 of 404 races in the last four years and whilst that 7.9% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the profits of 81pts (+20% ROI) are decent and good enough as a tertiary stat.
Of those 404 runners, the record with those running at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 shows 22 winners from 154 runners, a more palatable 14.3% strike rate with the 30.8pts profit also equating to 20% of stakes, allaying any fears that the stat was skewed by a couple of big winners.
Last time out was also Front Run's handicap debut, his first run for Marco Botti, his first run at Wolverhampton and in fact his first UK outing after three maidens in Ireland. He's clearly the east exposed runner here and would be more than entitled for having got all those "firsts" out of the way last time out.
He won't have it all his own way, but I've seen enough in the numbers to convince me about a 1pt win bet on Front Run at a widely available 7/2 BOG. I'm using Boylesports here today, but feel free to...
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