Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, Monday 16th May

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Newmarket: Venturous @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, soon headed, faded inside final furlong).

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brave Archibald at 10/1 e/w BOG.

Why?

This one might seem like a bit of a longshot and I admit it's longer than I'd normally put up for SotD, but there's every chance he's overpriced and I've hedged the bet in expectation of at least a place, as he has achieved in five of his last six runs, finishing 128213, showing some consistency and the latest effort was a defeat of less than two lengths nine days ago.

That run came off the back of a 191 day absence, so he could be ewcused for needing a run or feeling rusty and in fact he finished the race far better than he started it, staying on well from off the pace to make the frame, suggesting the step up in trip today might work to his advantage.

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He's trained by Paul Cole whose runners are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 12.18pts (+53% ROI) here at Brighton over the last three years, from which Luke Morris has ridden three winners from 9 here on a track where he has also excelled in recent times.

In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, Luke's record on handicappers priced at 2/1 to 12/1 here reads as 15 winners from 65 (23.1% SR) for profits of 31.6pts (+48.7% ROI) with male runners winning 12 of 47 (25.5% SR) for 28.9pts (+61.6% ROI) and those racing over this 10f trip are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 14.2pts (+203.1% ROI), leading to a record of 3 from 4 on males at this trip for profits of 10.5pts.

Further confidence comes from the horse's consistency, as in UK flat races since 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds with a top 3 finish in each of their last three races, but were losers LTO 6 to 30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1457 (21.3% SR) occasions with the resultant 334.2pts profit equating to 22.9% of stakes invested.

Of those 1457 runners, 3 yr olds are 227/1055 (21.5% SR) for 273pts (+25.9% ROI) and they have won 131 of 683 (19.2% SR) 3 yo only races for profits of 229pts (+33.5% ROI) with a 5 from 14 record here at Brighton.

And that's why the call is...a 0.5pt E/W bet on Brave Archibald at 10/1 BOG with Betbright, who were the standout price at 7.00pm and to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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