Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day Update, 2nd to 7th February 2015

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 02/02/15 to 07/02/15

When you commit to writing a daily "tipping" piece (you all know how much I hate that word!) come rain, hail or shine, then you know there are going to be very few hiding places.

When you're deep into one of the worst runs of form since the service started almost 39 months ago, those hiding places become even more scarce. This is a horrible run I'm on, but my methods haven't changed at all in the last three difficult weeks. Results WILL improve, but hopefully sooner than later.

Those new to Gold over the past month would do well to look at the bigger overall picture, which still shows a healthy 2 from 7 average (28.45% SR) and a decent 23% return after what is now almost 1050 selections.

Selections & Results: 02/02/15 to 07/02/15

02/02: Ze King (adv 11/2 BOG) : 5th at 9/2
03/02: Bushel (adv 6/1 BOG) : 2nd at 5/1
04/02: Squats(adv 11/4 BOG) : 6th at 7/2
05/02: Abundantly (adv 9/2 BOG) : 7th at 7/1
06/02: Topaling (adv 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 3/1
07/02: Vesuvhill (adv 7/2 BOG) : 7th at 2/1

02/02/15 to 07/02/15:
0 winning bets from 6
P/L: -6.00pts

February:
0 winners from 6 = 0.00% S.R.
P/L: -6.00pts
POI = -100.00%

Overall:
295 winners from 1037 = 28.45% S.R
P/L: +230.57pts
ROI: +22.23%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +242.57pts from a 1038pt outlay = +23.37% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free 10-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

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5 replies
  1. maverick99 says:

    The beauty of having long term stats is that it enables you to understand why bad runs occur. Your incredible 7 successive winners historically meant that this would normally be achieved from 25 selections. It’s therefore not difficult to understand that there was the probability that the following 18 could be losing selections. One of the hardest psychological barriers I believe to betting is actually understanding that a 28% strike rate won’t necessarily mean a linear one winner every 3.57 selections, but more likely 28 winners every 100 selections, with absolutely no guarantee where the winners will occur. So from 100 selections, if the first 7 win then the following 93 selections will only provide 21 further winners and it’s quite feasible that selections 94-100 could also all be winners meaning that selections 8 through to 93 may only produce 14 winners which is roughly one winner from every six selections. Even these however may not be linear so bad runs may still unfortunately apply. Having a suitable betting bank with staking to reflect the probability of poor runs is therefore crucial.

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