Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day Update, 9th to 14th February 2015

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 09/02/15 to 14/02/15

The second quarter of February proved to be more in line with SotD's historical performance, if not slightly better.

Two nice winners at 4/1 & 3/1 meant we made a healthy 3pts profit from our six runners, which could have been even better, but for a 7/2 late faller on Thursday, which I think would have won with a clear round.

The upshot was that we've halved the deficit accrued in the first week of the month and and although I'm still disappointed with the month so far, the last few days have signalled a return to form.

Selections & Results: 09/02/15 to 14/02/15

09/02: Roberto Pegasus (adv 4/1 BOG) : WON at 3/1
10/02: Spring Over (adv 5/1 BOG) : u/p at 6/1
11/02: Mubtadi (adv 7/2 BOG) : u/p at 9/4
12/02: The Last Samuri (adv 7/2 BOG) : fell at 13/5
13/02: Canuspotit (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 7/4
14/02: Melvin The Grate (adv 7/2 BOG) : u/p at 11/4

09/02/15 to 14/02/15 :
2 winning bets from 6
P/L: +3.00pts

February:
2 winners from 12 = 16.67% S.R.
P/L: -3.00pts
POI = -25.00%

Overall:
297 winners from 1043 = 28.48% S.R
P/L: +233.57pts
ROI: +22.39%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +245.57pts from a 1044pt outlay = +23.52% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

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7 replies
  1. Downwave says:

    Hello, I think the points profit should be at SP not advised prices which are very difficult to get on at and I’m up at 6am! I do enjoy following the SOTD column and it is the first thing I check every day on the way to work.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Paul

      Thanks for the comment, and of course that’s a fair enough view. However, the whole point of a ‘value’ service like SotD is that it takes advantage of both the early price and ‘BOG’ offer many bookies have in place.

      In the same way that value services like Pricewise in the Racing Post, and Hugh Taylor’s ATR value service publish results at advised prices, so do we.

      I’d dispute that prices are very difficult to get on at. It’s true that the price goes quickly sometimes, but not generally. And, moreover, SP is bigger than advised on occasion too, hence the benefit of BOG.

      In summary, I know it’s frustrating when one misses the price ‘apex’, but there can be many prices between advised and SP, so referencing the latter shouldn’t be something we’re expected to do.

      Hope that makes sense, and sounds fair. I’m sure Chris will have his own view on the matter.

      Best,
      Matt

    • Chris Worrall says:

      With due respect, Paul, I respect your opinion, but would have to disagree quite strongly with it.

      Due to the way I fit posting SotD into my schedule, roughly half of the posts are made around 9.30 to 10pm and a similar amount go to press around 1.30 to 2.00am. I’d be very surprised if there’s much market movement between 2am and 6am, but if you say there is, then there is.

      I NEVER place any bets at SP and I don’t understand why anyone would, to be honest. Betfair SP, perhaps, but not SP.

      And finally with regards to prices. Quite often I’ll suggest that I think the selection is overpriced and this is factored into the equation for qualification as a selection. We’ve had lots of picks sent off below 2/1, after being backed all day, but I wouldn’t put a 15/8 shot up for SotD to start with, unless I felt the horse should be odds on.

      Also, if I post SotD at 2.00am for a race at 8pm at Wolverhampton, why should I have to take a price that has been subject to 18 hours of market exposure?

      Cheers,
      Chris

  2. Blokeshead says:

    First thing I do, every morning without fail, whilst the coffee machine is still whirring into action, is log onto this site and place my SotD bet. I’m persona non grata at half of the BOGs bookies today, but I still usually manage to get on at around the price Chris suggests.

    Living an hour east of the UK helps, as does getting up at an hour most people find horrific, but it’s hardly a major hurdle to one’s day to build that into one’s routine. If you’re a tea rather than coffee person first thing, why not do it whilst the kettle’s boiling? Piece of cake…

  3. Fatboyjim says:

    Without trying to appear a teachers pet I have to say I have rarely had trouble getting the advised prices, occasionally it happens but not often. Check for a selection in the evening and if not posted then first thing in the morning, I regard this as a second income and do all I can to maximize my bottom line.

  4. Downwave says:

    Hello Chris, it looks like a personal preference but I monitor all my systems at SP as I’m keenly aware that profitable ones look unprofitable because of it!! I wasn’t suggesting that you would take SP but report SP, anybody with any noggin would know that the system would be better taking early prices. I’d taken Upswing the night before and backed SF as well. Done by the fast finishing Gold Futures..

    I’ll be checking the selections before I go to bed now that I know you are posting that early! Keep them coming.

    All the best,

    Paul

Comments are closed.