A short Sunday post, dear reader, to tell you what I will be backing and swerving today...
Firstly, a quick gloat about a TFS horse I backed yesterday... I managed to back Donativum in the Timeform Million at 80. Albeit only for a fiver, I still got a tidy 400 notes back. 🙂
Of course, that wasn't a TFS qualifier, and nor was Tazeez, when that one won at 25/1. It's been a difficult season on the flat in truth, and I much prefer the jumping game.
TTS continued its mightily impressive early season run when Morestead romped home yesterday at 8/1, meaning we're now £639 up to betfair odds. In fact, even to your local bookies' SP, we're £488 in front, for £20 stakes. Not bad for five weeks.
In truth, I expect things to quieten down, and we'll be due a bad run soon enough, such is the nature of racing. But who is to say when that run will start?
If you're interested, you can take a look at TTS here...
Today's racing sees the Arc meeting in Paris and jumps all the way this side of La Manche.
In the Arc itself, I'm against wonder filly Zarkava. The girls struggle in this race and haven't won for 15 years, and also she will hate the ground if the rain has got into it. She is exceptional, however, and may win despite these points. She just won't be carrying my money.
The 5f Prix de l'Abbaye looks impossible, with a good chance of an upset. All of the fancied runners are drawn unfavourably high but, with that much pace far side, high may still have it.
I won't be playing in this race, so nothing more than a pin-sticking speculative selection is Desert Lord, who won the race two years ago and was third last year.
It doesn't get any easier in the Prix Marcel Boussac, for precocious young ladies. Again, no more than a speculative selection in a wide open field of unexposed fillies, is Palme Royale, who won easily on debut in the same race that Zarkava did before winning this last season.
In the Grand Criterium, Mastercraftsman will probably win, but Naqoos could give him a run for his money, and is good value at around 5's.
The Prix de l'Opera is another stonking race. Despite most of the cream of middle distance fillies and mares lining up, I reckon Lush Lashes is nap material.
Her best distance is probably 1m2f and she has bulletproof form, and will go on whatever ground conditions prevail.
Moonstone, second in the Epsom Oaks before winning the Curragh version, will give her a lot to think about if fully wound up after a break (is Aidan prepping her for the Filly & Mare Turf in the States? I hope so!)
Then to the Arc - I will cross out Zarkava for reasons previously mentioned. Although I think the Duke of Marmalade is an excellent animal, and the Soldier of Fortune is too, I always try to find a big priced animal with a squeak.
Generally, this means I look to the German horses. The 33/1 shot Kamsin has won three Group 1's on the bounce at home. He'll love any softening in the ground, stays very well and, if the race is truly run, has a chance.
I will cry if Getaway wins. This horse has cost me more than any other this year, and I didn't get matched at 40 in the ante post market, when 38 was freely available...
On the domestic front, I'll be looking out for Pagan Starprincess, who was a very good horse last season. She might just need the run today though, if the betting pattern on betfair is any clue.
In the 3.15 at Huntingdon, Manshoor is really interesting. Lucy Wadham has picked him up for 23,000 guineas after some promising form in France. These are a moderate lot, and I reckon this one wins if taking to hurdles.
If you are a follower of form, then Gloucester must win the last. But the vibes are not good in the market. I'll be leaving the race alone, though if I can get 2/1 I'll be tempted in...