Revealed: The 24 trainers who consistently win races at 'working man's' prices
From the desk of Matt Bisogno
A balmy August evening, 2011
Dear horse racing enthusiast,
If you've been reading my blog for any length of time, you'll know that I am a massive fan of using trainer patterns to make betting decisions. What I'm about to share with you has literally changed the way I bet, and I think it may do the same for you too.
But first, let me give you a little 'back story'.
I've been interested in horse racing for over twenty years (more than half my life!), and - obviously - I've been betting on it for as long. When I started out, I didn't really have any idea which information was important and which was not.
I was like every other newbie, who used the string of numbers to the left of a horse's name to make my betting decisions. It worked for me sometimes, but overall there's little doubt that I was losing money.
As time passed, I was convinced that it was possible to make money from betting horses, and that in order to do so, I'd need to find key information that wasn't available to all punters.
It was the better part of fifteen years before I finally latched on to the core element of form that has been the backbone of my betting ever since.
That core element is trainer profiling.
Trainer what?, you might be asking.
In a nutshell, I figured out that the information that wasn't on the racing page was more important than the information that was. That's because this information was far less widely available.
When I'd started out, I was using the most obvious, most widely available 'form guide' there is. Those numbers next to a horse's name told anyone who wanted a bet precisely where the horse had finished in recent runs. And that can be useful, for sure.
But what it didn't tell anyone was:
Â - What distance the horse raced over
Â - How many horses were in the race
Â - What class of race it was
Â - What the going was
Â - What type of race it was
Â - Whether the horse met any trouble in running
Â - And so on, and so on, and so on...
So yes, I was able to find a few winners. But the percentage of winners and the money I won was nowhere near enough to pay for the losers. And I was losing quite a bit in those early years.
But I look back on that as my apprenticeship now. Whilst I'm still learning - and will continue to learn for as long as I bet on horses - the one aspect of racing that I KNOW makes more money than any other is trainer profiling.
Trainers are creatures of habit, and their job is to hone the horses in their care to peak fitness, and to place them into races which will produce optimum performance.
In other words, they get them fit and find them races they can win!
But how can we know when a horse will win? And when should we bet?
The answer to the second question is a little easier than the first. We should bet horses that fit into the trainer profiles when the odds support it. Specifically, if we know that our man (or woman) wins a certain type of race a certain amount of the time, then we can know what 'value odds' are.
Let me give you an example.
Suppose I know that the fictional trainer, Jane Bloggs, wins with 10% of her runners. I also know that she happens to target sprint handicaps, in which she has a much more attractive 22% Â (or two from every nine) strike rate of winners.
From delving more deeply into Mrs Bloggs' track record, I can see that she has a fairly even spread of winning horses from 4/1 all the way up to 14/1 or thereabouts, and her average win odds are a little over 7/1 in sprint handicaps.
So I now know that Jane Bloggs has two sprint winners for every nine sprint runners, and that her average winning odds are 7-and-a-bit to one.
If you could only bet the tails side of a coin, and you were offered 6/4 each time, would you take the bet?
The answer to this should be YES!!! Even though you might start with a run of a few losers, you know that the true chance of an untampered coin landing on tails is 50/50 or even money.
So being offered 6/4 is a sure route to riches. Unfortunately, there are no bookmakers who will offer these odds. 😉
But there are plenty of bookmakers who, every single day, under estimate (and over price) the winning chances of trainer's entries, in the way I've highlighted above.
Jane Bloggs' sprint handicappers should have an average win price of slightly less than 9/2 in order for bookies to profit from laying them. The average odds of 7/1 are in essence the same as getting 6/4 on a coin toss.
We know that with the coin example, we will lose 50% of the time (when it lands on heads), but we're getting paid more than even money when we win the other 50% of the time.
In exactly the same way, we know that with Jane Bloggs' sprint handicappers, we will lose 78% of the time (remember, she has a 22% win strike rate). But the win odds are more than enough to compensate us for those losers, and to return a healthy profit.
Jane Bloggs has a string of horses with which her training routine involves mostly fast work up a steep gallop, and she spends a lot of time doing three furlong 'bullet' routines with her horses. She also spends a lot of time honing her horses speed from the stalls, which amounts to a length at racing speed.
In other words, it should be no surprise that her horses perform best in sprint races, when they're ready to win.
That's the secret of trainer profiling. It's not complicated, and we don't even need to know about the trainer's training approach. We just need to look at the numbers that are not on the race card.
By digging a little deeper, we become in possession of information that most other bettors don't know about. And when we back the horse with recent form of '000' that wins at 9/1, we can assume the smug grin of someone who knew a little more than the average punter (and got paid out a little bit more too!)
But maybe that sounds like a lot of hard work...
Well, I'm not going to lie to you. It does take some effort to dig out the guys and girls to follow, and when to follow them. And if you do take the time and effort, you have a very good chance of reaping the rewards.
Alternatively, you can piggy-back on my research. Like I say, I use this information every single day, and have a number of profitable trainer angles I look to.
One of them is what I call my 'Super Trainers' list, also known as the Dirty (Two) Dozen. These twenty-four men and women have the perfect blend of profitability and an ability to fly 'under the radar'.
Now, of course, as trainers win more often, so their popularity increases and the odds on their horses sometimes decreases (due to the number of people betting them). That will be the same with these guys, but the good news is that is unlikely to happen any time soon.
In fact, I'm confident these 24 shrewdies will continue to pay their way for at least the next eighteen months, for those of you who - like me - are prepared to invest your trust (and a small amount of your cash) in them.
"How much profit can I make?"
By now you're probably thinking, OK, Matt, I understand the principle, but what's the bottom line? How much have these trainers won for punters?
Good question, and an obvious one. So let me share the profit and loss figures with you.
Since the start of 2009 (32 months, as I write), my band of 24 have accrued the following profits under the conditions in the guide:
406 winners from 3074 bets. That's a strike rate of 13.21%, or just under one in seven. The profit, to a level Â£10 stake, is Â£10,965. And remember, that's at SP. Because of the nature of these horses - low profile trainers and quite big odds - you can expect to add around 30-40% to those figures if betting on the exchanges.
For those of you who don't like long losing runs - who does?! - then you might be interested to know that backing these horses each way actually returns a slightly higher profit, and a much higher strike rate (for the place part).
To be precise, from the 3051 bets where each way wagering was allowed (i.e. 5+ runner races), 981 horses made the frame and paid out on the place part at least. That's a much more acceptable place strike rate of 32.15% (just shy of one in three), and a profit for a Â£10 each way level stake of Â£12,497.50.
The odds of the horses we're interested in are guaranteed to return a profit if the horse is placed, because I'm not interested in betting short prices with this sort of approach. Quite simply, it doesn't pay dividends in the same way.
Here's how the profit graph looks using a Â£10 level win stake:
I hope by now you're interested, perhaps even a little excited, about the possibilities this approach offers. If you are, then that's great.Â But I have a duty to completely manage your expectation, and that means that as well as showing you the upside from the last two and a half years or so, I also need to tell you of the potential downside.
You see, if you're betting to win only, these trainers will have collective losing runs. In fact, in the graph above, the longest such run was 41 qualifiers. And in total there were eight losing runs of 30 or more qualifiers.
So you need a bank to work with, and I recommend at least 100 points. The likelihood is that you won't need that. But if you happen to be unlucky enough to start as a losing cycle is about to unfold, then your patience will be tested (and so will your bank).
Alternatively, and this might suit less experienced / patient backers, I'd suggest betting each way, with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker
[NOTE: this approach will almost certainly improve your profit figure as well but, because I don't have any supporting data for that, I can't promise that will be the case].
The longest losing run in over 3,000 bets for each way backers was sixteen. Still a bit unsavoury, but bearable with a reasonable betting bank. For each way bettors, I'd advise a bank of 60 points (30 each way bets).
I hope also that it stands to reason that you should only ever bet with money you can afford to lose. (And please accept my apologies if that was like teaching granny how to suck eggs!)
Right, that's the common sense 'wealth warning' out of the way. Now to the nitty gritty.
I'm only selling copies of the 'Dirty Two Dozen' super trainers report until I notice odds being impacted, and there's no predicting exactly when that might happen. In fact, the last two betting products I've offered have both completely sold out in less than 24 hours. That's not hype or fluff, that's the truth.
My Dirty (Two) Dozen super trainers report is available for Â£19.99. That's not a typo. You can have all twenty-four profit vampires (they suck the cash out of the bookies!) for less than a score, until the market shows signs of impact. Once that happens I'll put the 'sold out' sign up until further notice. Those previous two products NEVER went back on sale.
So, if you'd like to secure your copy of the Dirty (Two) Dozen, you'll probably need to act quickly, as it's been proving to be very popular. Click the link below to be sure of your space at the table.
As with everything I offer, I'm confident you'll enjoy the product and consider it excellent value for money, but if for any reason you're not, just send me an email with your reasons why, and I'll gladly refund you. You have a full 30 days to try this out.
One thing if I may though: I do ask that if you know you're NOT the type to use trends and that this is probably not going to be for you, please leave the space free for someone who will benefit from the report. I hope you agree that's the fairest way.
With that said, all that remains is for me to thank you sincerely for reading this letter, and to wish you every success with your betting, whatever you decide.
p.s. these trainers have collectively made a profit in eleven of the last twelve quarters (i.e. three month periods). The losing quarter suffered to the tune of 32 points, whereas the biggest winning quarter was a whopping 211.5 points!
p.p.s. this will quite possibly be the only chance you get to take advantage of my generosity, and secure this report for less than a fortnight's worth of Racing Post's.