Switching from All Weather to the Turf

As we move out of April and into May, the number of turf flat race meetings is increasing while the volume of all-weather meetings is diminishing, writes Dave Renham. Therefore, this is the time of year where we see the highest proportion of runners switching from an artificial surface on their last run to the turf next time out.

In this article, then, I am going to see if there are betting angles we can potentially take advantage of; either positive or negative. The study period covers flat turf races run in the UK between 2016 and 2023 where the previous run was on the all-weather. All profits/losses calculated to Betfair SP less 5% commission.

All runners switching from all-weather to turf

To start with let me share the results for ALL runners:

 

 

These runners have secured a win rate equating to close to one in ten and have an average A/E index standing at 0.85. Losses to BSP have been just over 3p in the £ which is better than the ‘norm’.

Let me now break the overall data down - firstly by market rank.

Surface switchers by Market Rank

As I am using BSP for the profit/loss column I will be analysing Betfair Market rank data. To start with let me share the A/E indices for different positions within the betting market:

 

 

As can be seen, favourites have the highest figure and the better value has come from the top four market positions. If we combine the top four in the betting the A/E index averages out to 0.89. Runners positioned 6^th or lower in the market have offered relatively poor value in comparison.

Let me now share strike rates, profit/loss and returns:

 

 

The returns (ROI) have been very even with only second favourites out of line. The bigger priced runners (6^th+ in the betting) have been ‘saved’ by the occasional three-figure priced winner. For the record there have been eight winners priced above 200/1 on Betfair with 880.09 being the biggest.

 

Surface Switchers by Finishing Position Last Time Out

I  would now like to examine last time out (LTO) performance. I am using LTO finishing position and here are the stats:

 

 

Winners last time out have secured a small BSP profit, while runners-up LTO are not too far from a break-even scenario. It looks best to focus on these two groups. Horses that finished 7^th or worse have edged into profit too, but again mainly due to those 200/1+ winners mentioned above.

Before moving on, let me split the LTO winner results by the all-weather course where they won:

 

 

Horses coming from four courses have seen a profit, namely Chelmsford, Dundalk, Newcastle and Wolverhampton. In contrast, last time out winners at Southwell have performed extremely poorly with a very low win rate and heavy losses of over 23 pence in the £. This has been the case over the whole-time frame so one cannot use the old fibresand surface as the reason.

Digging into this LTO course data I have found a few additional angles for LTO winners to share:

1. LTO winners at Newcastle that started in the top three of the betting in their next run performed well thanks to 120 wins from 437 (SR 27.5%) for a profit of £82.26 (ROI +18.8%).
2. LTO winners at Chelmsford that started favourite next time scored 39.7% of the time (71 wins from 179) for a profit of £29.23 (ROI +16.3%).
3. LTO winners at Kempton who raced next time in a handicap have gone on to win 140 races out of 772 (SR 18.1%) for a BSP profit of £92.22 (ROI +12%).

Surface Switchers by days since last run

It is time to examine days off the track to see whether that has made a difference or not:

 

 

Horses returning to the racecourse within a week have by far the best strike rate and have returned over 9p in the £. There have been big profits for the 8-to-14-day group, too, but the 880.09 winner mentioned earlier is the main reason for those. Hence, from this data I would only take a return to the track within seven days as a positive.

 

Surface Switchers by Sex of Horse

The sex of the horse is an area I usually examine as sometimes useful angles are uncovered. Let's see if that is the case here. Below is a graph comparing the A/E indices of male horses moving from all-weather to flat turf versus female horses doing likewise:

 

 

As the numbers indicate, female runners have provided the best value when switching from the sand to turf. This might be because females tend to underperform on artificial surfaces compared to the turf and hence, when switching back there is a better chance of showing improved form.

The best time to catch female runners seems to be during the warmer months. From June to September their A/E index rises to 0.94 and backing all runners blind (nearly 9000 of them) would have yielded a profit of £454.31 (ROI +5.1%).

 

Surface Switchers by Class of Race

Does the class of race make a difference? The graph below suggests for one class, it does, when we compare return on investment.

 

 

Horses switching from all-weather surfaces to the turf have produced poor returns in the highest class of contests (Class 1). However, there is even more to ‘unpack’ when we dig a bit deeper into these Class 1 results. Look at the difference the Class of race they raced in last time out made:

 

 

Horses that raced in the same class LTO (i.e. Class 1) have actually made significant profits with a strong A/E index of 0.96. Those who raced in a lower class LTO have performed extremely poorly with a below par A/E index of 0.79 and losses of more than 30p in the £. There is also quite a difference when comparing the win percentages of nearly 3%.

 

Surface Switchers by Trainer

The final piece of the jigsaw is to look at the performance of trainers when their horse switches to turf from a run on the all-weather LTO. Here are the trainers with the highest strike rates:

 

 

We have the usual suspects as one might expect. The record of the Charlton stable stands out with sound profits and an excellent A/E index of 1.09. If we narrow down Charlton runners to those that started in the top four of the betting when returning to turf, they have excelled. They have combined to score 56 times from 197 qualifiers (SR 28.4%) for a profit of £87.89 (ROI +44.6%). Roger Varian’s runners in contrast seemed to have struggled with losses of around 25p in the £ and a very modest looking 0.74 A/E index.

Before sharing my final thoughts, it would be useful to compare these AW to turf trainer figures with their record when their horses race on turf having raced on turf LTO. In the table below I will compare their win strike rates and A/E indices:

 

 

Individual trainer strike rates do not vary too much but the table gives us some useful pointers. Firstly, William Haggas and Roger Varian’s runners both perform much better when their horses have run on turf last time (both strike rate and A/E index). Ralph Beckett’s runners also do but the difference is less stark. Charlton’s runners perform better having switched surfaces, but their turf-to-turf runners still perform reasonably well.

 

Main Surface Switcher Takeaways

Before I wind this piece up, I have picked out what I think have been the strongest positives and negatives uncovered in my research.

 

 

This week there are more positives and less negatives than I was anticipating. Obviously one cannot guarantee the same patterns will be seen this year with runners switching from the all-weather to turf, but hopefully more will than won’t!

- DR

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• Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
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