I'm not entirely sure, dear reader, who's responsible for this football system, though I suspect it has something to do with Mr Steven Lee Jones. I say 'system', but in fact this is a collection of no fewer than seven systems: five traditional 'place your wager ahead of time' approaches and two trading (i.e. change your position during the match) tactics.
As with all Sports Betting Manuals' products, I was a little apprehensive regarding the content of this guide. But the first thing to say is credit where credit's due. Despite my reservations, I was pleasantly surprised to see that there are 56 pages of fluff-free content.
In fact, this guide packs in more than the vast majority of racing and betting system ebooks. It's a pretty good read, I'd say, and - as mentioned - with seven systems, there is plenty of quantity.
But what of quality? Ok, what I propose to do by way of a test is to put up all of the selections identified by the system in the Premier League and Championship this weekend. This will cover the 'pick in advance' quintet of systems only, as I will be playing footy myself tomorrow afternoon (at an inordinately modest level!), so cannot review the trading systems.
So, System 1 is a way to find decent Home Wins, and nominates the following:
Middlesbrough over West Brom (1.86 on betfair as I write)
Reading over Swansea (1.8)
System 2 plays Asian Handicaps:
System 3 is interested in over/under 2.5 goal markets:
Cardiff - Birmingham over 2.5 (2.3)
QPR - Derby over 2.5 (2.06)
Reading - Swansea over 2.5 (1.89)
Wolves - Bristol City over 2.5 (1.9)
System 4 lays aways (Premier League only):
Lay West Brom (at 5.3)
System 5 also involves striking a wager after the game has kicked off, and so I can't flag any qualifiers here.
I have used the trading strategies, and I like the reference to going against people's emotions that underpins these.
On the whole, I think the guide is probably worth it for the trading strategies alone, if you're not already aware of them.
For the other systems, time and results will tell. One word of caution on those: it does take a little while (perhaps half an hour for Premier League and Championship matches) to find the qualifiers across the five systems.
But then, you might well just specialise on a subset of them.
This is the best manual from the Steven Lee Jones factory for quite some while, and I give it a thumbs up ahead of the matches this weekend. Even if they don't go to plan, for anyone who plays on the footy, you should at least take a look at the sales page.
Onto Friday's racing, and we had another nice winner in the first yesterday (11/2), as well as getting the hot favourite in the sprint layed out of the frame.
Alas, Hotham (11/2) left his run too late and was flying for third - would have won in another five strides. Make My Dream, mentioned in despatches, finished 2nd. Fair play to the winner, another course specialist, called Mr Wolf.
Today, let's take a peek at Ascot. There's a high draw bias to help us in the sprint, so let's look at the trends for the big sales race at 3.20.
A massive 29 go to post for this the 8th running of this race. It's been held at Newbury previously (when Ascot was being renovated) and has also been run from 6f to 6 1/2f to 7f. For all that, there are some pretty strong trends:
- All seven previous winners had lost their maiden tag. Remarkably, this scythes through half the field (15 down, 14 left in)
- 6 out of 7 were 3rd or better last time out (the exception being last year's winner). This takes out a further 3, leaving 11
- 6 out of 7 were drawn 18 or higher. Just four left.
The quartet I'll be focusing on consists of Accede, Rosy Mantle, Golden Destiny and Shiva Adiva.
But if we consider that 6 out of 7 previous winners had last run between 22 and 48 days prior to winning, we can chuck out the dormant Accede (115 days since last run) and Rosy Mantle, who ran 15 days ago.
So my two to tackle the other 27 with are Golden Destiny and Tom Dascombe's Shiva Adiva. But it's a tentative selection in the circumstances: almost thirty stroppy pubescent teenagers moaning and flouncing their way down the straight track at Ascot. We'll need fortune as well as statistics on our side!
A final note on this race. She might win, but anyone taking less than 2/1 on the terribly drawn favourite, Penny's Gift, wants their head examined in my opinion. If you can't find a better 6/4 shot than this, give the game up! Lay. All day.
Funnily enough, in the last race at Ascot, Rapid City runs for Julia Feilden, having been returned to her stewardship after one run for David Wintle. Before that transfer, I was a part owner of RC, and I'll be cheering heartily from the sidelines despite no longer possessing any of this horseflesh.
(Incidentally, it will be a 'transfer back' double for Julia on the day, as Spirit of Sharjah runs for her earlier in the afternoon having been moved to Peter Chapple-Hyam for a fruitless spell last season).
Yesterday (Thursday) was indeed the fine day that I hope for TTS. Whilst not as good as 2006 (see Wednesday's post), we still celebrated winners at 10/1, 7/2 and 7/4 to put us £350 up on the season - to betfair odds of 16% above SP with a 5% commission paid on winners.
If you haven't yet got hold of it (where have you been hiding?!), you can read more about it and secure your copy here.