System Testers Needed…

Apologies for the lack of posting recently, dear reader, as various issues have required my attention over the last week or so. I'm hopeful that at least some of the 'behind the scenes' work that's been going on will be to your benefit in due course, but I'm afraid I can't say more than that at this stage.

Enough of the stuff I can't really talk about and onto the stuff I can!

In today's post I've got a request for 'guinea pigs'; an update on the Bookie Demolisher review; my view on the Prix Morny 2yo Group 1 yesterday; and another question of the week for you...

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First up, I've been working with a very knowledgeable 'handicapper' called Steve over the last couple of months, with a view to helping him put together an all weather tipping service. This guy eats, sleeps and breathes racing form and the results since I've been tracking have been pretty impressive:

WEEK  WINS  BETS  % WIN  +/-   % +/-

1          6         39    15.4    2.78    7.1
2          7         43    16.3    6.35    14.8
3          6         21    28.6    4.84    23.0
4          5         33    15.2    7.63    23.1
5          5         41    12.2    -8.85    -21.6
6          5         32    15.6    21.85    68.3
7         4         28    14.3    -4.12    -14.7

Total   38       237    16.0      30.5      12.9

More than thirty points profit over seven weeks is pretty impressive. And a 12.9% return on investment is also extremely healthy. An extra £85 or so each week for £20 stakes is good going, no?

So why is Steve looking for people to receive his daily information without cost? Well, it's quite simple. When he offers his service to the public (likely some time in October), nobody will have heard of him and, therefore, nobody will know if he's any good or not. It's a perennial problem for people introducing products to the market for the first time.

I had originally offered to do the launch of the service for Steve, which is why I'd been receiving his selections each day. But I subsequently decided against the launch, as I'll not have sufficient time to do it justice. And, besides, it'd still only be my word for the fact that his service was any good.

The long and short of my typically verbose introduction? Steve wants twenty (or so) people to receive his daily information (no charge) starting next Monday. The catch, such as it is, is that you have to be prepared to offer constructive feedback on the service (e.g. number of selections, odds, staking, etc). It'll require you to send no more than a short email a week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: this is a 'dutching' service, which means Steve often gives out two, three and occasionally four horses in the same race. If you're not comfortable with betting more than one horse in a race, then please don't apply this time, as it won't be fair on those who do 'enjoy a good dutch' (as it were).

If you'd like to receive this service (it's entirely up to you whether you back the horses or not. My advice - as ever - is that you should paper trade until you're comfortable with things), just add a comment below this post in the big blue box, saying you're interested.

The trial starts next Monday!

********

Now then, talking as we were of system tests, my thanks go to John for his excellent coverage and tracking of the Bookie Demolisher system, which fared quite well. Not brilliantly, but not without merit either. John completed his trial yesterday, and his review can be found here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

One unanswered question (until now) was how did the service fare to Betfair SP? As so many of us use the exchanges these days, it is reasonable to publish those results alongside industry SP to offer a comparison.

The answer was that it didn't make a lot of difference, but it did turn a slightly unprofitable system into a slightly profitable system, which is never a bad thing! Remember, there's no jiggery-pokery here. All winners and relevant placed horses are quoted to the Betfair win and place odds, with a 5% deduction to account for commissions.

As you'll know if you read that review, 60 of the 144 qualifiers were placed in the first three, with 25 winning. To bookies' SP, the system showed a loss of 9.33 points. To Betfair SP, that was converted into a profit of 7.88 points.

Like I say, it's not earth shattering profitability, but profit is profit, and there were a number of misfortunes along the way. (That said, misfortune tends to even itself out over a test, so I'd not place too much store in that, although there was a 25/1 'winner' discounted due to its high odds...).

If you'd like to take a closer look at the Bookie Demolisher, you can do so here:

Get Bookie Demolisher here...

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The racing this past weekend was pretty moderate fare. More McDonald's than Gordon Ramsay. A notable exception was the card over in the beautiful surrounds of Deauville. Britain has some delightful race courses, but the tracks at Deauville and Chantilly are, for me, more than a match for the best of the home parks.

And yesterday, the racing was as sumptuous as the gourmet grub those overfed Frenchies were doubtless tucking into as the action unfolded (jealous? moi?!).

Schiaparelli reiterated that he has a leg in each corner by trotting up in the three-runner Prix Kergorlay, a Group 2 for stayers.

But the highlight was without doubt the Prix Morny, a six furlong burst for two year olds. Lining up were the unbeaten duo, Arcano and Canford Cliffs. The first named was a battling winner of his two previous starts whereas the Cliffs had won his two races by seven lengths and six respectively, the more recent victory being in no less an affair than the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

They were joined by, amongst three others, Special Duty, who currently takes high rank amid the Gallic juvenile brigade.

The race itself was a real curio. At the finish, Arcano preserved his unbeaten status by a short neck from Special Duty, with Canford Cliffs vanquished for the first time, a further neck away. That the two 'also rans' were only another neck and a head back, you would be forgiven for thinking that this was a dawdle and then a sprint in the last furlong.

But no. When I saw the time of the race, I had to watch it again, and I hand timed it myself. They did actually complete three quarters of a mile in 67.9 seconds, equivalent to 11.3 seconds per furlong from standing start gate break to full tilt finish. Wow!

Not only was this a new 2yo track record, but it was a new all age track record. That is, no horse of any age has bettered that time. And the winner wasn't receiving lumps of weight here, as Radiohead was when trying to beat his elders on Friday in the Nunthorpe at York.

The evidence suggests that all horses ran broadly to their marks, with Canford Cliffs possibly a pound or two behind his Coventry win (this was a hotter race for sure), and the 40/1 rag dolly, Dolled Up, running a couple of pounds better than might have been expected (she was only beaten a length and three quarters by Special Duty last time off level weights, and here she narrowed the margin to half a length - more than plausible).

So, whilst I may be proved wrong on this, and although I may be in discord with most racing commentators, I actually believe the form of the race to be rock solid.

Canford Cliffs is probably slightly better than he showed, and - to my (granted, untutored) eye - he looks a sprinter pure and simple. Arcano on the other hand couldn't live with them early in the race (hardly surprising given the fractions), and was only getting on top at the lollypop (actually, they don't signify the winning post with such crassness in France. Rather, they have that upturned horseshoe type thingie, which I always thought was bad luck...).

Arcano will surely stay further being by Oasis Dream out of a Daylami mare. Seven furlongs looks a 'gimme', and, they'll naturally want to make a miler of him. He's headed for the Dewhurst next, and the extra furlong - combined with the uphill finish - ought to be just the ticket for this chap. I wouldn't be steaming into the 12/1 (Stan James go just 7's !) on him winning the Guineas next May, but he's sure to take high rank amongst his peer group this year.

********

Lastly for today, I've added another question of the week up top right. This time, I'm interested to know what the most important thing you look for in a racing system is. Depending on your style of betting, or your appetite for risk, or even whether money is the primary reason you follow racing, you'll take a different view on the question.

Do please take a minute to choose the ONE thing that's most important to you. Once you vote, the overall results to date will be displayed so you can see how your response compares with everyone else's. (Remember, there's no wrong answer - just the right answer for you).

Thanks a lot!

Matt

p.s. Don't forget to leave a comment below if you're interested in trialling Steve's dutching service, gratis.

Your first 30 days for just £1
133 replies
  1. brian williamson says:

    More than happy to be one of the 20 or so to trial steve’s selections.

    rgds

    Brian

  2. michael clarke says:

    hi i would be interested in steves dutch trailif still open thanks michael

  3. Jeff Hinge says:

    Hi,

    I am very interested in trying the new dutching service as I have been looking to get a reliable dutching service for some time.

    Thanks

    Jeff

  4. andy says:

    hi id be happy to trial the sytem im off work at the moment
    so time to spare. thanks

  5. Steve Dodd says:

    I would be interested in trialling this service and giving weekly feedback.

    regards

    Steve

  6. Dave Hoyles says:

    I’m very interested in checking Steve’s all-weather tipping service. Many thanks.

  7. Rob says:

    Hello Matt,
    I am interested in trialling Steve’s system and would be happy to provide feedback,

    Thanks,
    Rob

  8. steve says:

    important winners or place and easy to do. i doing dogs now i got 100% doing dutch bets stoping on 1st one up.i looking for a good dutch sys.

  9. John 'Ears' Stafford says:

    Count me in please. I am well into dutching at the moment. (Mind you, I’d rather be a rabbit!)
    Thanks for the opportunity,
    Ears.

  10. Mike Ellinas says:

    Hi,

    I would welcome the opportunity to trial the new system.

    Thank you.

    Regards,

    Mike.

  11. Tony Ryan says:

    I would be happy to test the system – I use one or two dutching systems already.

    Regards

    Tony Ryan

  12. Chris says:

    Happy to help out with trial & feedback. I’ve used dutching whenever my first choice looks weak so keen to give it a go

  13. Jack says:

    Hi Matt
    I’m interested in looking at Steve’s selections. I operate a little dutching system of my own, so I’ve no qualms about this style of betting, though of course I’ll paper trade for the test period.
    Thanks.
    Jack

  14. George says:

    I would be very interested in trialing Steves tips

    I have tried dutching before so no what is expected

  15. jim lane says:

    dutching system
    hi have tested a small number of systems in the past and used to sending weekly feedback
    quite comfortable with dutching in fact use it for laying
    if open interested

  16. Subhash says:

    Would like to receive Steve’s tips and do the needful on a feedback to its performance on a weekly basis.
    Thanks
    Dublin, Ireland

  17. Dave says:

    I would like to trial this. I use dutching a lot particularly with correct scores on football

  18. Keith Phipps says:

    Hello Matt,
    I am interested in trialling Steve’s system and would be happy to provide feedback.
    Thanks,
    Keith.

  19. david says:

    Hello Matt,
    Pleased to trial Steve’s service.
    I consistantly make a nice bob or two with my own-
    dutching system.
    Thanks & regards,
    David.

  20. Alan says:

    Hi Matt.
    Yes I would be happy to be a tester. I am retired and can give it my full attention. I have a Betfair account and quite often place Dutch bets.

  21. Mike Ashley says:

    Happy to be included in the testing. I tend to be a bit cynical over most “tipping systems”

  22. walter says:

    Hi Matt

    Thanks for the invite, but not on this occasion.

    The 6 to 1 ratio of bets against wins, respectively, regardless of final +/- odds given, whatever they may be, is not found attractive to me.

    Thank you

    Kind regards
    Walter

  23. Brian says:

    Hi Matt

    I would like to put my name forward to test this system – I am nearing the end of a system I am presently testing for another well known service. Also dutching is not a system that I am presently using – which maybe I should be.

  24. Terry says:

    I’d be more than willing to help trial and send fedback on any backing system.

  25. andrew mcgil says:

    ioud lie tob a gnes pig,as ive always wanted to un round in a cage,only joking,i be hpp to beofhelp

  26. Gillian says:

    33 men mustled in ahead of me, how is a girl to get anything?

    I will offer myself as a guinea pig , some chance I have!!

    I`m off to have a little cry.

  27. Elaine Cullum says:

    Hello Matt

    I already do a fair bit of dutching using Nessie and Dave’s software and ratings. I am at the PC for racing every day, so would be most happy to assist with your trial.

    Kindest Regards

    Elaine

  28. Eddie Lloyd says:

    Hi Matt,
    I would love to be involved in the guinea pig trial! I’ve just started my own website so I would love to have a daily trial of the selections and communicate with my readers (although only a few I imagine are perusing the site at the minute!!). Hope you are well and you had a succesfull York meeting?
    I was personally relieved to have layed radiohead off in the nunthorpes stakes before enjoying the day actually being there! I got on at 6/1 and layed off at 7/2 that morning. That gave me enough profit to consequently back 5 losers and one winner!! Oh well, paid for the day and rather too many beers!!
    Ed

  29. bob says:

    Hi, happy to help Steve out with the trial, look forward to his selections arriving

  30. Mike says:

    Hi Matt,
    i would be interested in trial as i have dutched horses but usually to lay. if not successful good luck anyway

  31. HUW says:

    Hi i would also trial this system or if there is any other backing system,thanks,

  32. Andy says:

    Matt,

    Big big fan of all weather racing, and work in the betting industry.
    Would be more than happy to help out.

    Regards,

    Andy

  33. Barry Davis says:

    As I enjoy “dutching” and have a fair bit of spare time on my hands I would be delighted to test Steve`s selections and send him a weekly feedback.I shall however only papertrade initially !!

  34. brianmsomi says:

    please count me in.im migth have received the mail later than usual as things are slow these days in my south africa telecoms

  35. David says:

    I seem to have inadvertantly entered the above comment twice please only refer to the first comment

  36. bob marsden says:

    thanks matt for offer but no thanks ive was trailing systems for a guy in sheffield in late1990s over a period of over 10 or more years going through the racing post every day for at least 4 plus hours a day thinking this is it ive finaly got a realy good one then after a month or more another losing system ive have honestly a shed full of useless rubbish i am still on the look out for the holy grail so lots of luck with every thing you do in racing i hope you find it… as ive said to you before your profiles and my own little system make myself a few of lifes finest things ie holidays every few months and odd bottle of bollinger or moet

  37. Sean says:

    Hi Matt

    I see you have a lot of people interested but i would like to give it a go ansd see what happens…Sean

  38. jonka says:

    Iwould have been pleased to trial the system,but looking at the No of replies count me out. Regards John

  39. Dean says:

    Hi have just read your review & would be very interested in testing this system for you, have written a computer calculcator that works out to the nearest penny Dutching on two, three or four horses, runs on Excel, so simple a five year old can use it, put in prices of horses & amount to win it does the rest, best wishes Dean & Pauline in Jersey

  40. Brian says:

    Hi Matt

    I would be delighted to trial Steve’s dutching system and provide feedback on a regular basis

  41. john says:

    been interested in horses now for 60years my first bets were in the local newagents have pleny of time to test an idea Thanks

  42. Tom Wooldridge says:

    Hi Matt

    Seems like you have plenty of volunteers!
    As most of my betting involves some form of Dutching, I am keen to take part in Steve’s trial.

  43. Greg Whitfield says:

    Hi Matt,

    If Steve would like a tester from Australia (despite our loss in the Ashes), I would like to become involved.

    Cheers,

    Greg

  44. Duncan says:

    Matt

    Noticed you seem to be struggling for responses to Steves trial.! If you get stuck and there’s no one else then give me a shout and I’ll see what I can do. !!

  45. Pat Carr says:

    I would be interested in trialling Steve`s dutching system.
    I am numerate, literate and available,
    Thanks & Regards.

  46. Frank Bull says:

    Hi Matt, I would like to test steves dutching system as I am one of those people who back more than 1 in a race very often and would be prepared to send the feedback and thoughts good or bad

  47. Martyn says:

    More than happy to trial the new system. Love number crunching and trying my own ideas out.

  48. Warwick says:

    I’d be more than pleased to trial the system. I’m self employed and work from home.

  49. Bryan says:

    Sorry but dutching does not interest me in my opinion it negates profits and far too many bets to place

  50. Tony Mac says:

    Hi Matt,

    You can put me down as a tester, as a ‘thoroughbred dutcher’ i’ll put myself forward.

    Hope you are well.

    Regards

    Tony

  51. John Farrell says:

    Hi Folks, I’m John from Ireland.I’d give it a go BUT be warned everything i touch goes useless!!!!! Always a 1st time tho!!!!If theres a bigger MUG gambler out there than me, i’d like to meet him!!! Just to hit him over the head with a hatchet!!!!!!

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