Posts

Well I Declare, 15th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 15/05/12

Well, I Declare! 15/05/12

It's that time of year now, where the big meetings come thick and fast and there's often little time to take stock of what has just happened and then prepare yourself for the next assault on the bookmakers. Thankfully, we have the ability to call on the services of Mal Boyle and his regular weekly racing preview. Mal has gone through the upcoming race fixtures and highlighted some angles you may not have thought of. Here's Mal's view on the coming week:

"The weather rather spoiled last week’s Chester meeting but with York’s Dante week following on quickly behind, those wet days are soon put behind us. 

Looking at last year’s results at the Dante meeting, seven successful favourites were recorded via twenty-one events, with two of the three market leaders prevailing in the juvenile events. 

Mick Channon saddled two of the three two-year-old winners (both returned at 7/2), with Richard Fahey having secured the other contest via a 6/5 favourite.

Richard was one of just two trainers who saddled three winners at the meeting (his other two gold medallists were returned at 9/1 and 11/2), Mick Easterby being the other with 16/1-10/1-7/1 scorers.

Afore mentioned trainers Mick Channon and John Gosden both saddled two winners.

Sir Henry Cecil and Richard Fahey were both responsible for two beaten favourites during the three-day meeting.  

Last year’s toteplacepot dividends:

Wednesday: £2,923.40 (average first day dividend via the last ten years: £655.79)

Thursday: £20.40 (average second day dividend via the last ten years: £142.53)

Friday: £176.30 (average third day dividend via the last ten years: £403.22)

Have a great week,

Mal."

 

TUESDAY 15/05:

Beverley:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute has won with five of his eleven three-year-old raiders at Beverley in recent times, with Courage having been declared to contest the 4.30 event on the card.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best (strike rate of 32%) and Charlie Longsdon (24%) head the list at Hereford today, with Charlie’s LSP figure of one hundred and eleven dwarfing Jim’s perfectly respectable six points of level stake profits!

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Steve Dixon has crept in under the radar by training three of his eleven runners at Wincanton to winning effect, especially taking into account his thirty-eight points of profit thus far.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Luke Morris joined the ton up club at Kempton the other day with Luke five behind Jim Crowley (105 winners during then last five years) going into today’s meeting.

 

Southwell (NH):

General stats: Three of Nicky Henderson’s last eight runners have won and his 31% strike rate at Southwell suggests further success sooner rather than later for the Seven Barrows yard.

 

WEDNESDAY 16/05:

Bath:

General stats: With three gold and three silver medallists saddled via his last eight runners, Denis Coakley has entered two runners on the card whilst boasting a strike rate of 22% at Bath in recent years.  The eight relevant winners have produced sixty-six points of level stake profits for good measure!

 

York:

General stats: The Cheka is due to represent Eve Johnson Houghton (Eve’s only runner on the card) with the trainer having saddled two of her five runners on the Knavesmire in recent years to winning effect.

1.30: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a six-timer with relevant horses having secured twelve of the last sixteen available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs):

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)
12-4-5 (11 ran-good)
5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)
5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)
11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)
7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)
10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)
5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)
2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

2.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result last year via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Eleven of the twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the toteplacepot finale, though just two favourites prevailed during the study period.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)
11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)
15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)
12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
13-7-12 (13 ran-good)
7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)
1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)
6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)
12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)
2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

2.30: Aidan O’Brien’s last three runners in the ‘Musidora’ have finished out of the frame since a 8/15 representative (Alexandrova) could only secure the silver medal behind Short Skirt back in 2006.  Seven of the 14 favourites have reached the frame (five winners) during the study period

3.00: Four and five-year-olds have claimed ten of the last thirteen renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 7-3 during the period.  Four favourites have won this event during the last 14 years, though just three of the other 11 market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)
1-11-6 (12 ran-good)
3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)
6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-1-13 (17 ran-good)
2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)
5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)
8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)
3-5-4 (10 ran-good)
3.35:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fourteen renewals and yours truly offered last year’s 28/1 winner Line Of Duty via three options for the contest.  Six of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years (two winners).

4.10: Three of the seven favourites to date missed out on toteplacepot positions (two winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (three years ago).  The other six winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

‘Draw factor' five furlongs):

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)
5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)
2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (6 ran-soft)

4.45: Richard Fahey has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medals via just four renewals to date.  Favourites have won three contests (LSP of nearly eight points) whilst the other (2/1) market leader finished fourth of nine three years ago.

‘Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

8-10-4 (14 ran-good)
3-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-3-2 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-5-2 (10 ran-good)

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Although Paul Nicholls and Anthony Honeyball head the (33%) leading trainers at Fontwell, Oliver Sherwood’s LSP figure of seventy two points is worth noting (26% strike rate).

 

Perth:

General stats: Alan Swinbank will be raiding York this week where he saddled a 28/1 winner last year.  His three intended runners here make for interesting reading however, as the trainer has saddled two of his last four runners at Perth to winning effect. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: David C Griffiths is a trainer on the way up and his 6/22 stats here at Lingfield are worth noting alongside his LSP figure of eleven points.

 

THURSDAY 17/05:

Folkestone:

Your first 30 days for just £1

General stats: This Hunter Chase meeting invariably produces winners for leading stables in this sector of the sport.  Alan Hill (4/6), John Turner (3/7) and Peter York (4/11) look sure to saddle winners between them on Thursday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Considering the competitive nature of the sport on the heath, Silvestre De Sousa’s 30% strike rate at Newmarket stands out from the crowd. On the training front, Robert Eddery has saddled two of his five runners to winning effect, whilst Mahmood Al Zarooni’s LSP figure of seventy-seven points is backed up by a 26% Strike rate.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Although his strike rate and LSP figures are disappointing, Richard Hannon has saddled forty-two more winners (66/24--last five years) than his nearest rival at Salisbury relating to Thursday’s represented trainers.  The yard struck form at Windsor on Monday and plenty of gold medallists will emerge at Salisbury this season.

 

York:

General stats: Ryan Moore boasts a 23% strike rate at York during the last five years, with the ex-champion also producing twenty-three level stake profits in the process. 

Class 2 five furlong handicap event scheduled for 1.30: The four winners have scored at 33/1--16/1--11/1--10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 14/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 89-95-89-96. Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.
'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)
4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-12 (15 ran-good)
1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

Middleton Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals of this contest, five-year-olds having prevailed on the other three occasions.  Ten of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period (six winners).

Dante Stakes scheduled for 2.30: Three of the last eight winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby, whilst five of the last fourteen market leaders have obliged.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.  Aidan O’Brien has saddled three of the last six winners.  Two of those three winners went on to contest the ‘Blue Riband’ at Epsom, finishing tenth and twelfth in the process.

Listed Handicap event scheduled for 3.00: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals, whilst thirteen of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)
4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-5-8 (15 ran-good)
3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)
8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)
12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)
7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)
6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

 

Class 2 3YO conditions event scheduled for 3.35: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the money to date (one winner).

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)
3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

Class 3 juvenile event scheduled for 4.10: Twelve of the last thirteen winners have been returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have obliged.  Nine of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)
6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-4 (10 ran-good)
6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
4-1 (7 ran-soft)
6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)
6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6 (10-good to firm)
2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)
9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)
7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

Perth:

General stats: Leading trainers rule the roost at Perth pure and simple, with Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Gordon Elliott all homing in on Nigel Twiston-Davies who has ruled this particular ‘outpost’ down the years.  Jim Goldie’s runners also demand respect.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Keith Goldworthy’s LSP figure of ninety-three points continues to catch the eye at Ludlow though logically, every Nicky Henderson declaration is worthy of plenty of respect.

***Keith only had two runners at Ludlow this Thursday and one won at 66/1 with betfair paying a massive 86.36!***

 

FRIDAY 18/05:

Hamilton:

General stats: David Simcock (3/9) and Jeremy Noseda (2/5) have muscled in on Sir Mark Prescott’s act of late, though Mark’s 48% record (11/23) suggests that he is the man to beat when represented at Hamilton.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Lady of Burgundy (potential runner in the 4.55 event) is the horse to home in on relating to Friday’s Newbury card for plenty of reasons.  Underrated pilot Racheal Kneller has booted home two of her last four mounts to winning effect at the time of writing whilst her Newbury record of 2/3 catches the eye.  Lady Of Burgundy is trained by Mark Usher who had saddled three winners via his last ten runners when this column was compiled.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Regular readers will know that Newcastle is one of my least favourite tracks, particularly in races on the straight course where jockeys seem to ride each race differently regarding their stall positions.  Any track which witnesses races where horses are split into groups greatly favour layers rather than players pure and simple.  John Gosden’s 25% strike rate catches the eye.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Mickael Barzalona has produced an LSP figure of nineteen points via a 23% strike rate (six winners) during his brief career in Britain thus far.

 

York:

General stats: John Dunlop has long since raided the Knavesmire to good effect and his current 31% strike rate holds up well.  John’s ten recent winners have produced fifty-three points of level stake profits at the track.

Listed (Class 1) juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 1.30: Four of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have obliged to date whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at 7/1.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6-1 (10 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

Class 2 handicap over twelve furlongs scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won the last five renewals, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won six of the last eight contests.  Seven of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes three winning favourites.

Yorkshire Cup due to be contested at 2.30: Eight of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame, whilst five market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

Listed one mile event for fillies due to be contested at 3.00: Eleven of the thirteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions (via six renewals) have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, with five of the seven favourites finishing in the frame (two winners).

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)
7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-soft)

Five furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 3.35: Twelve of the sixteen horses to have gained toteplacepot positions via four renewals to date have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst trainer Mick Easterby comes to the gig on a hat trick having saddled 16/1 and 5/2 winners of late.  Mick only held one entry earlier in the week whereby Towbee obviously carries plenty of stable confidence. Only one of the five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position to date (no winners).

'Draw factor (five furlongs)':

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

Ten furlong Class 3 handicap due to be contested at 4.10: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with two favourites having obliged during the last decade.  Seven of the fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  It’s worth noting that Saeed Bin Suroor has not been represented in the race since securing a hat trick in the contest back in 2009, with Yasir being his only potential runner in the race this time around.  Whether or not the four-year-old gets into the handicap (current standing: 29/55), Yasir is one to consider for future events from my viewpoint.

Twelve furlong 3YO closing event scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won four of the last nine contests, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at just 9/1 which is a reasonable record in a competitive event.  Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

 

Aintree:

General stats: Jimmy McCarthy is booked to ride E Major in the 8.15 contest and with Jimmy having ridden three winners at Aintree via just eight assignments (LSP figure of forty points in the process), Renee Robeson’s representative is worth keeping on the right side.

 

SATURDAY 19/05:

Doncaster:

General stats: Runners from the yards of Roger Varian (6/14) and David Lanigan (5/12) deserve plenty of respect on Town Moor these days.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Roger Varian (fifty-six points of level stake profits) has carried on where Michael Jarvis left off and alongside Mahmood Al Zarooni and Roger Charlton (to name but two other top trainers who boast decent profits at Newbury), Varian’s runners should never be ignored.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden event due to be contested at 1.30: Henry Cecil has won two of the last four renewals of this event and though the maestro held four entries at the time of writing, Tom Queally was already booked aboard All That Rules. Twelve of the last fourteen winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less (three winning favourites). This race looked likely to be split into two divisions (as was the case last year) at the time of writing (fifty-six entries).

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
1-10-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
2-7-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-11-15 (14 ran-soft)
11-4-9 (14 ran-good
4-5-9 (15 ran-good)
4-8-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
8-6-9 (11 ran-good)
9-10-6 (10 ran-good)
6-11-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-5-17 (17 ran-good)
9-13-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-8-5 (15 ran-soft)
15-7-5 (20 ran-good to firm)
4-14-7 (14 ran-soft)

Listed ‘Aston Park’ event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen renewals of this staying event, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame (three winners), with all fourteen winners having scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Class 2 six furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds had won all four renewals until last year when a six-year-old upset the apple-cart. Fifteen of the seventeen win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-3 or less, whilst four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (one winner).  Last year’s result was dominated by horses drawn on the high side: 16-13-17-10 (18 ran-good to firm).

Class 2 ‘London Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.05:  Two clear favourites (along side a co favourite of three) have prevailed during the study period, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)
5-9-12 (12 ran-good)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good)
5-9-13 (13 ran-good)
6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
3 (3 ran-soft)
8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)
3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

Lockinge Stakes due to be contested at 3.40: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whereby ante post punters who have backed Frankel appear to have precious little to worry about.  The last thirteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (seven winning favourites), whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Class 4 handicap for fillies over seven furlongs scheduled for 4.50: Four of the last five winners have scored at 28/1-25/1-20/1-16/1 whilst just one favourite has obliged via eight renewals.  Seven of the eight winners carried weights of 9-1 or less.

Class 4 3YO maiden scheduled for 5.20: Ralph Beckett has saddled three of the last four winners of this event (100/1-7/1-6/1) with Ralph coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.  Riot Of Colour was Ralph’s only entry earlier in the week.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: With an aggregate of seventy-five winners during the last five years, Richard Hannon and John Gosden rule the roost at Newmarket regarding potentially represented yards at Newmarket on Saturday, the two trainers boasting an aggregate LSP figure of one hundred and four points into the bargain.

 

Thirsk

General stats: Andrew Balding is saddling plenty of winners at present though the trainer is a rare visitor to Thirsk these days. That said, Andrew held two entries at the time of writing and given his 40% strike rate at the course, both horses should be kept on the right side if offered the green light to race.

 

Bangor: 

General stats: Younger trainers have produced plenty of winners at Bangor in recent years, with the likes of Rebecca Curtis (27% strike rate), Charlie Longsdon (25%) and Martin Todhunter (25%) all gaining their share of glory.  All three trainers produce positive LSP figures which add up to sixty-two points at this moment in time.

 

Uttoxeter: 

General stats: Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Snowdon both boast a 27% strike rate at Uttoxeter, offering respective LSP figures of nineteen and twenty-three for good measure.

 

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.