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2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 5th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 5th April 2019 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 5th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2018 Winner: LALOR (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Kayley Woollacott
Jockey: Richard Johnson

15/16 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/16 – Finished first or second last time out
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/16 – Had raced on the flat before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1978
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

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2018 Winner: TERREFORT (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/16 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
29 of the last 30 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 28 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

201 Winner: POLITOLOGUE (11/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

16/16 – Raced within the last 30 days
16/16 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
15/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
21 of the last 28 (75%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
30 of the last 33 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
26 of the last 28 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2018 Winner: ULTRAGOLD (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

15/16 – Raced within the last 34 days
15/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/16 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last 5 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 13 (62%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 15 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 26 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: SANTINI (6/4 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (88%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 19 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

 

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2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 4th April)

Another top week for jump racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 4th April 2019 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day.

We get going on DAY ONE with the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Randox Health Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is bundles to look forward to.

As always with the big meetings, here at GeeGeez we've all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

THURSDAY, 4th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Doombar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2018 Winner: WE HAVE A DREAM (2/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

14/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/16 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 12)
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
11/14 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 11 of the last 20 (55%) runnings – including the last four.
13/19 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/29 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

2.50pm – Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

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2018 Winner: MIGHT BITE (4/5 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
13/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/16 – Aged in double-figures
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Won that season’s King George
15/35 (43%) winners were aged 10 or older
24/35 (69%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
13/22 (59%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 26 (50%) renewals and 6 of the last 9 (67%)
4 of the last 8 winners had run in this race before
3 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

3.25pm – Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: L’AMI SERGE (5/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
8/16 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
5/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 8)
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
10 of the last 13 winners (including last 7) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won

4.05pm – The Randox Health Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2018 Winner: BALNASLOW (11/2 odds)
Trainer: Graham John McKeever
Jockey: Derek O’Connor

16/16 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 33 winners were younger than 9)
13/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged in double-figures
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 14 winners went off favourite or second favourite
22 of the last 26 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 35 winners were aged younger than 9
22 of the last 26 (85%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
10 of the last 14 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 11 of the last 17 (65%) renewals


4.40pm – Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2018 Winner: Bentelimar (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Jockey: Jonathan Burke

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Aged 7 or younger
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Irish-trained winner
10 of the last 18 winners were Novices
15 of the last 19 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 14 of the last 21 (67%) runnings
17 of the last 19 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
3 of the last 12 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 20 (35%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)

 

 

 

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