Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

• 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
• 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
• 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
• 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
• 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
• 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
• Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27

14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
• 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
• 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 16 winners were 1^st or 2^nd season hurdlers
• 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

• 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
• 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 14 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
• 5 year-olds have a poor record
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 17 of the last 19 finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 17 of the last 20 winners were 2^nd or 3^rd season chasers
• 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
• 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
• 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 14 favourites won
• ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
• Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

• 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 25 of the last 34 won last time out
• 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
• 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
• 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
• 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
• 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
• Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
• 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
• Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
• 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
• The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
• 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
• 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

• Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
• Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
• Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 11 winners were 2^nd season-hurdlers
• 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
• 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1^st or 2^nd season hurdlers
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
• 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
• Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
• Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

 

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