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2018 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 14th March 2018)

Each day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 14th March 2018

 

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f


2017 Winner: WILLOUGHBY COURT (14/1)
Trainer –Ben Pauling
Jockey - David Bass

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 17 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 12
  • All of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 7 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 12 of the 21 top 3 places
  • 17 of the last 19 were NH bred
  • 12 of the last 19 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (5 of the last 8 begin their careers in Irish points)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 6 placed in last 13 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 52 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 32 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 16 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten, 0 from 29)

 

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2017 Winner: MIGHT BITE (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 8 of the last 10
  • 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 11 favourites won (45%)
  • Irish bred horses are 18 from the last 21
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 21 of the last 25 were novice hurdling last season
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (50 of the last 51 winners had)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid unbeaten horses over fences (2 from 29)
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 1 of the last 18 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • All 20 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses – they are just 2 from 28
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 23

 

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2017 Winner: SUPASUNDAE
Trainer – Mrs John Harrington
Jockey – Robbie Power

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 13 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 7 of the last 9 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 11 of the last 12 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 23 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (2 wins each in last 8 years)
  • 8 of the last 16 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 24 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (4 of the last 9)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 9 winners)
  • 12 of the last 13 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 8

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 14 years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 30 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
  • Only 4 of the last 17 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • The last 66 horses wearing headgear have been beaten
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins has a bad record – 24 runners all placed outside top 2

 

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2017 Winner: SPECIAL TIARA (11/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Noel Fehily

Pluses….

Your first 30 days for just £1
  • 11 of the last 17 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 3 of the last 5 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 21 of the last 33 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 10 between them
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had run that calendar year
  • 34 of the last 36 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 18 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 11 winners were French-bred
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were second season chasers
  • 15 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 18 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 36 years
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 16 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 2 winners since 1977

Recent Queen Mother Champion Chase Winners

2017 – SPECIAL TIARA (11/1)
2016 – SPRINTER SACRE (5/1)
2015 – DODGING BULLETS (9/2)
2014 – SIRE DE GRUGY (11/4 fav)
2013 – SPRINTER SACRE (1/4 fav)
2012 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW (4/1)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (10/1)
2010 – BIG ZEB (10/1)
2009 – MASTER MINDED (4/11 fav)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (3/1)
2007 – VOY POR USTEDES (5/1)
2006 – NEWMILL (16/1)
2005 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (15/8 fav)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (7/4 fav)

 

2018 Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting Trends

14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/15 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
13/15 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/15 – French bred
6/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Won by an Irish-based horse
5/15 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out
3/15 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
3/15 – Had won the race before
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 5/1

Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

11 of the last 17 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
20 of the last 33 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
35 of the last 36 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
15 of the last 16 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
15 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously

Champion Chase – 20 Year Trends

14/20 – British-trained winners
6/20 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) is yet to train the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 3 of the last 6 winners (won the race 4 times in total)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 5 of the last 18 winners
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners
Jessica Harrington (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 15 winners

 

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2017 Winner: CAUSE OF CAUSES (4/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 13 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 8 of the last 12 winners carried 10-13 or less
  • 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 7 of the last 13 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 13 between them)
  • 10 or the last 13 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record (1 from 53)
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 94
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 16

 

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2017 Winner: FLYING TIGER (33/1)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Richard Johnson

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 13 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • Respect Fillies
  • 6 of the last 7 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 10 of the last 13 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 5 of the last 6 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • The last 12 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 8 runnings

 

Negatives….

  • No recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 29 between them
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 12 (and all not placed in the top 5 either)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before

 

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2017 Winner: FAYONAGH (7/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

  • 23 of the last 25 had won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (18 from 34)
  • 4 of the last 8 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 17 of the last 25 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 25 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 17 winners were second season horses
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 15 of the last 17 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 15 had been beaten in a race before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (8 winners), but is just 2 from last 29 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 19-7 in the race history

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • 1 winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 54 since 2000
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

 

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